AI-assisted research analysis by FutureKnowledge. Sources checked 25 October 2026. This is not investment advice.
Reviewed by FutureKnowledge: figures, dates and attributions were checked against the linked sources before publication.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday the US could strike Iran again “maybe tomorrow,” as reports say US Central Command has strike options ready and more US forces head to the region. No order has been announced. Trump also said Tehran could still avoid military action by agreeing to a deal.
What Trump said about new US strikes on Iran
Asked by reporters how close he was to ordering an attack, Trump replied: “We’re thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow,” Anadolu Agency reported. He said Iran wants a deal but questioned whether it would keep one, and said his aim was to stop Iran from ever building a nuclear weapon. At a rally on Friday, he said Washington “may do another little epic fury,” Middle East Eye reported. Epic Fury was the codename of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran that began on 28 February.
The remarks came as reporting on US military planning grew. According to an Al Jazeera summary of US media reports, The Hill reported that CENTCOM has prepared several options for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Axios reported earlier this month that the Pentagon told CENTCOM to finish preparing for a possible return to major combat, with Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear sites among possible targets. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the US and Israel had drawn up joint plans for an attack after the 3 November US midterm elections. Planning is not an order; the decision rests with the president.
Military build-up and intelligence warnings
The US is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, about 10,000 additional soldiers and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East by the end of November, Al Jazeera reported. The Wall Street Journal reported that the USS George Washington was being rearmed in the Arabian Sea with standoff land-attack missiles and bunker-buster bombs, according to Gulf News.
A memo on Friday from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned that Iran had “substantially increased” efforts to target US personnel, according to reporting cited by both outlets. On 23 October the State Department raised its Saudi Arabia travel advisory to Level 3 and ordered non-emergency US government staff and their families to leave. It cited the risk of drone and missile attacks on American interests by Iran and the Houthis.
How Iran has responded
Iranian officials have mixed warnings with signals that talks could resume. President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the US for the collapse of interim talks but urged that negotiations continue, Gulf News reported. Armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi said US warships would not be allowed in the Gulf “under any circumstances,” according to Iranian state TV. Iran’s ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam said Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade.
On Sunday, Iran’s army said it had shot down a US-developed LUCAS drone over Bandar Abbas, according to the semi-official Tasnim agency, as cited by Al Jazeera. Reuters, quoting Iranian security officials, reported that Tehran had drawn up plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if US and Israeli attacks resume. None of these Iranian claims has been independently verified.
Strait of Hormuz and oil: why markets are watching
Shipping is already under heavy pressure. October has been the worst month for attacks on ships since the war began, with more than 120 attacks reported, Al Jazeera said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy said two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels of crude hit mines on Friday while using an “unauthorised” southern route through the strait, and that their crews abandoned them, Gulf News reported. This is an Iranian claim; the ships were not named. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile off Limah, Oman, on 22 October, with no casualties.
Oil prices already reflect much of this risk. Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, its highest close since 29 April, and rose 6% over the week, according to a Reuters report carried by The Star. Saudi Arabia is also under Houthi missile and drone fire, as we reported in our analysis of the Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi oil sites. Earlier pressure on supply is covered in our report on Brent topping $112 after the Shaybah drone strike.
What it means for India
India is exposed mainly through energy. Its crude import bill for April to September rose 46.3% to $90.6 billion while volumes were almost flat, according to PPAC data reported by ThePrint. Renewed strikes on Iranian energy sites, or further damage to Gulf shipping, would add to that pressure through the rupee, inflation and the trade deficit. There is also a diplomatic sign: Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf skipped the BRICS Parliamentary Forum in New Delhi, citing “unforeseen circumstances,” Al Jazeera reported.
Who is more or less exposed
- More exposed: oil-importing economies, airlines, shipping firms using Gulf routes, Gulf-based businesses near US bases, and companies relying on Gulf undersea data cables.
- Less exposed: energy producers outside the Gulf and businesses with supply chains that avoid the region, though higher fuel costs reach almost every sector.
Scenarios to watch
The table sets out conditional scenarios, not predictions.
| If this happens | Possible effect | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Trump authorises strikes before the 3 November midterms | Sharp oil price spike and a risk of Iranian retaliation against Gulf bases and shipping | White House or Pentagon announcements; Iranian state media |
| Strikes are held until after the midterms, as reported plans suggest | Risk premium stays high, with volatility around each new report | Carrier movements; further US media reports |
| Talks restart and the naval blockade is eased | Possible reopening of Hormuz and some easing of oil prices | Statements by Omani or other mediators; Iranian negotiators’ travel |
| Iran targets undersea cables or more tankers | Disruption to Gulf data links, shipping insurance and trade | UKMTO alerts; telecom operator notices |
What to watch next
- Israel’s election on Tuesday, since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for renewed action against Iran.
- Any formal US statement on strike authorisation, and UKMTO shipping alerts.
Bottom line
The US has the forces in place and the plans drawn up, and the president says a decision could come at any time. Whether the next step is strikes or a deal is still open. For markets and for India, the main risk runs through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf energy sites, where oil is already priced near six-month highs.
Method note: This analysis compared Anadolu Agency, Middle East Eye, Al Jazeera (summarising The Hill, Axios, The New York Times, Reuters and Tasnim), Gulf News (citing the Wall Street Journal, AFP, UKMTO and Iranian officials), a Reuters market report carried by The Star and ThePrint (PPAC data), with the US State Department travel advisory as the primary source. Iranian and US military claims are reported as claims.