AI-assisted research analysis by FutureKnowledge. Sources checked 25 October 2026. This is not investment advice.
Reviewed by FutureKnowledge: figures, dates and attributions were checked against the linked sources before publication.
Yemen’s Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil sites at Yanbu, Rabigh and the East-West pipeline on Saturday, after Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, its highest close since late April. Saudi authorities say they intercepted the missiles fired at Yanbu and Taif, and no damage to oil facilities has been confirmed. The claims still matter because they target the route that now carries most of Saudi Arabia’s crude exports.
What the Houthis claimed and what Saudi Arabia said
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had hit seven targets, according to a German Press Agency (dpa) report. They were King Khalid airport in Riyadh, an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery, crude pumping stations and the East-West pipeline, King Fahd airport in Dammam, Najran airport and an airbase at Khamis Mushait. Saree said the attacks hit their targets and called them retaliation for Saudi air strikes on Yemen. Houthi-run media reported deaths in strikes on Sanaa. None of these claims has been independently verified.
The Saudi-led coalition tells a different story. Its spokesman, Major General Turki Al-Malki, said early on Saturday that air defences destroyed a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, intercepted two more aimed at Taif and Yanbu, and downed a drone over the Eastern Province, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. The coalition reported no damage. On Sunday, Saudi Civil Defense said debris from two intercepted ballistic missiles fell in Khamis Mushait and Ahad Rafidah, injuring two people and damaging three residential buildings and seven vehicles, according to the same report.
As of Sunday, neither Saudi Aramco nor the Saudi government had confirmed any damage to the pipeline, the pumping stations or the Rabigh refinery.
Why the East-West pipeline matters to oil prices
The pipeline is the reason these claims get the market’s attention. It runs about 1,200 km from the eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. With the Strait of Hormuz largely shut since the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February, it is Saudi Arabia’s main way to export crude without going through the Gulf. On 6 October, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said flows were back up to 5.8 million barrels per day against a maximum capacity of 7 million bpd, Al Jazeera reported. About 4 million bpd, roughly 4% of world supply, is being rerouted to Yanbu. The same report says drone strikes in early September forced a short shutdown, and that flows had fallen to about 2 million bpd in August, according to Kpler data.
Brent crude at $116.72: the market before the weekend claims
Oil was already rising before Saturday. Brent settled on Friday at $116.72, up $3.55 or 3.14%, its highest close since 29 April, and gained 6% on the week. US crude (WTI) closed at $103.27, up 3.8%, and rose 2.3% on the week, according to a Reuters report carried by The Star. Traders cited attacks on Saudi energy sites and Aramco’s evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters on Thursday. Reuters quoted Adam Turnquist of LPL Financial: “Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance.”
On 23 October Washington also raised its Saudi Arabia travel advisory to Level 3, “Reconsider travel,” and ordered non-emergency US government staff and their families to leave. The State Department cited missile and drone attacks by Iran and the Houthis, including on civilian airports and infrastructure.
Friday’s settlement came before the Saturday claims, so futures markets have not yet traded on them. This week’s earlier moves are covered in our reports on Brent topping $112 after the Shaybah drone strike and Brent’s five-month high as tanker attacks spread.
How this affects India
India buys most of its crude abroad, and high prices are already showing up in the data. India’s crude import bill for April to September 2026 rose 46.3% to $90.6 billion from $61.9 billion a year earlier, according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) figures reported by ThePrint. Volumes were almost flat at 122.7 million tonnes against 121.8 million, so the rise came almost entirely from price. The Indian crude basket averaged $116.09 a barrel in September, against $69.61 a year earlier.
If Brent stays above $110, the pressure on India’s trade deficit, the rupee and refiners’ margins is likely to continue. How much reaches consumers depends on pump-price decisions by the government and state-run oil companies. Red Sea exports from Yanbu are also one of the few large Gulf supply routes that avoid Hormuz.
Who is more or less exposed
- More exposed: importers that rely heavily on Gulf crude, airlines and other fuel-intensive transport businesses, chemicals and paint makers that use crude-linked inputs, and countries with large current-account deficits.
- Mixed: refiners, which can gain from wider product margins but lose if crude costs rise faster than fuel prices or if supply is disrupted.
- Less exposed or benefiting: oil producers outside the Gulf, upstream explorers selling at market prices.
Scenarios to watch
The table below sets out conditional scenarios, not predictions. It shows how different outcomes could affect the market.
| If this happens | Possible market effect | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi authorities confirm no damage and pipeline flows stay near 5.8 million bpd | Part of the weekend risk premium could fade when trading resumes | Aramco or energy ministry statements; tanker loading data at Yanbu |
| Damage to pumping stations or Rabigh is confirmed | A short-term supply shock on the main route that bypasses Hormuz; Brent could test new highs | Official damage reports; satellite imagery; loading delays at Yanbu |
| Attacks widen to Red Sea shipping or the Yanbu terminal itself | Higher freight and insurance costs for Asian buyers on top of crude prices | Insurer war-risk notices; shipping advisories |
| Mediation leads to a pause in Saudi-Houthi fighting | Pressure on prices could ease, though Hormuz would remain the bigger constraint | Statements by Gulf mediators and the coalition |
What to watch next
- Any statement from Saudi Aramco or the energy ministry on pipeline and refinery operations.
- How Brent and WTI trade when markets reopen after the weekend claims.
- The US Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, where higher energy prices complicate the inflation outlook.
- India’s next PPAC data release and any changes to domestic fuel prices.
Bottom line
The Houthis claim to have hit the oil system that Saudi Arabia now depends on to bypass Hormuz. Riyadh says it stopped the missiles, and no damage to oil sites has been confirmed. With Brent already at $116.72, that gap between claims and confirmed damage is what traders will weigh when markets reopen, and for India it adds to an already heavy import bill.
Method note: This analysis compared dpa reporting via The Spokesman-Review, Asharq Al-Awsat, a Reuters market report carried by The Star, Al Jazeera and ThePrint (citing PPAC data), with the US State Department’s Saudi Arabia travel advisory as the primary source. Houthi claims are reported as claims; damage figures come only from Saudi official statements as reported.