The complete index of American products subject to Canadian retaliatory tariffs on September 8 include more than 600 different entries. Searching for patterns can drive you to madness. Butterfly nets will be hit with a 50 percent tariff. So will eye make-up preparations and fish egg incubators. Track suits are also among the items facing the trade fury of Prime Minister Mark Carney, alongside swimming pools, paddling pools, video game consoles, and a buffet’s worth of tableware and cheeses.
The tariffs are meant to match American counterparts dollar-for-dollar, targeting $27.6 billion in products. When asked about the decision-making process, industry minister Mélanie Joly said some goods are meant to hurt Trump-supporting states, though she declined to say which. In other words, the United States may be a behemoth, but Canada can concentrate the pain in sensitive corners of the country.
Despite the minister’s demurral, the Associated Press and Newsweek were quick to highlight the political implications of the tariffs ahead of the midterm elections. States with Republican senators, such as Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Texas, all have substantive trade relationships with Canada—and are considered possible battleground states. Some experts are calling the issue “a political trap for Republicans,” with Democrats already seizing on the matter as a talking point.
Could the trade war lead to cracks in Republican support for Trump or lead to more Democrats in power come November? Here’s a look at some of the red states vulnerable to Canada’s new round of tariffs and the industries that may feel the most hardship.
Local reporting indicates that Republican senator Susan Collins and Democratic representative Chellie Pingree are now approaching Trump “from the same ground”—something of a rarity. Collins has come out against the new tariffs, calling them a mistake and pointing to the lobsters, blueberries, and lumber imports that end up on the Canadian market. According to the Eastern Border Transportation Coalition, imports from Canada accounted for 68 percent of Maine’s cross-border trade between 2015 and 2024. Altogether, the state exports $1.3 billion (US) in goods to Canada annually, largely in the agriculture, forestry, and energy sectors.
Though Canada walked back some $1.1 billion worth of proposed fish and seafood tariffs, lumber and pulp tariffs remain on the list. The Professional Logging Contractors of the Northeast noted that it’s not just lumber but steel and electronics imported from Canada for logging equipment that’s vulnerable.
In an op-ed published in the Toronto Star, the state’s Democratic governor Janet Mills called on Trump to de-escalate the trade war, writing that earlier tariffs on Canadian lumber hit “Maine’s forest products industry hard.” She also highlighted retaliation outside official tariffs, noting that a Canadian road salt distributor recently cancelled shipments—some parts of the state receive up to 90 percent of municipal road salt from Canada—turning the trade tensions into a safety issue as well.
About 20 to 30 percent of the state’s exports go to Canada, making the country the midwestern state’s largest trading partner. Trade is dominated by agriculture as well as equipment and makes up $4.9 billion worth of goods annually. Farmers in the state noted that although the state’s large corn and soybean industries were spared in the new tariffs, agricultural machinery was not. Iowa is home to the world’s largest John Deere manufacturing complex as well as other farm equipment companies.
In a letter to Carney on August 17, Ontario premier Doug Ford named Iowa among a list of eight states he suggested receive additional retaliatory tariffs should the talks break down. Ford wrote these states should feel “the full force of Canada’s response” given how politically significant they are to the current administration.
Newsweek has flagged Iowa as a possible Democratic pickup in the battle for the Senate, with Republican representative Ashley Hinson facing an increasingly competitive challenge from Democrat Josh Turek. RealClear polling currently has the two candidates in a dead heat.
Canada is Michigan’s largest export market and supplies 66 percent of its imports—$43.5 billion worth of goods, led by vehicles, auto parts, and Alberta oil. Dozens of the retaliatory tariffs involve motor vehicle products.
When they were announced, representatives from both the auto and agriculture industries expressed dismay. Mary Buchzeiger, the chief executive officer of Lucerne International, which builds parts for the automotive industry, noted that trade uncertainty has already led to the cancellation of a $50 million plant and that Canada and Michigan have built a relationship over the last thirty years. “It’s not something that you can just strip away overnight.” Many in the industry are urging Congress to provide more stability.
Michigan is considered a true swing state—Trump squeaked a win in 2016, lost to Joe Biden in 2020, but won again in 2024. Both the Senate and House races are seen as highly competitive and considered by experts to be “critical for Democrats’ chances to retake power in Congress.” Democratic candidate for Senate Abdul El-Sayed hammered his Republican rival, GOP senator Mike Rogers, on rising costs and his silence on the tariff issue.
Ohio sits directly in the path of Canada’s tariff retaliation. The country is the state’s largest export market, accounting for roughly $17.5 billion (or 31 percent) of Ohio’s goods in 2025. The state’s largest manufacturing export category is transportation equipment, worth $18.3 billion in 2025. This is followed by chemicals at $7.4 billion, non-mechanical machinery—including computers, electronics, and electrical equipment—at $6.3 billion, and fabricated and primary metals, from steel and aluminum to finished metal parts, at $7 billion combined.
Canada’s tariffs target a range of products central to those industries, with 50 percent duty on steel and aluminum products, and 15 to 25 percent on agricultural equipment and other machinery.
