As voters head to the polls in Germany's eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, observers in Russia and Ukraine are watching closely – and hoping for very different outcomes for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
"Moscow wants the AfD to win outright," Vladislav Belov, a Russian expert on Germany, told dpa on Thursday.
The AfD has never participated in a ruling coalition in Germany's 16 states or its federal government, as all other mainstream parties refuse to work with it, a policy infamously known as the "firewall."
For the first time in its 13-year history, however, it stands a serious chance of bypassing the firewall and leading a state government in Saxony-Anhalt.
Russia wants "the firewall to be breached," said Belov, who heads the centre for German studies within the Institute for Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow.
Moscow is not counting on an explicitly pro-Russia stance from the AfD, but on a course that would serve what it sees as Germany's national interest – and not that of Ukraine, he argued.
A victory for the party in Sunday's election would also represent a defeat for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a strong supporter of Ukraine against Russia, Bulov added.
In Kiev, a victory for the AfD is a worrying prospect. The party has campaigned against German aid for Ukraine, and it favours resuming purchases of Russian gas.
The AfD's branch in Saxony-Anhalt is seen as particularly pro-Russian: its manifesto openly calls for the resumption of school exchange programmes with Russia, and the deputy regional chairman, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, recently made headlines after an interviewer spotted a Russian army mug in his office.
