The NFL is a league built on parity and the idea that, in any given season, any team can rise from the bottom of the standings and compete for a championship. The 2025 season proved this concept, with the Patriots going from AFC East bottom-feeder to Super Bowl participant.
As we head into the 2026 season, every team’s fanbase is asking the same question: Why not us?
It’s a nice thought. But here, in reality, stories like last year’s Pats come along maybe once or twice a decade. Typically, we can whittle down the true Super Bowl contenders with reasonable accuracy before the season even begins. And that’s what I’ll be doing here. I’ve considered the title cases for all 32 teams and narrowed them down to a group of seven that can realistically win a Lombardi Trophy next February.
So let’s look at what makes these teams title contenders before examining the group of fringe contenders who just missed the cut, along with why they were left out.
One of these seven teams will win the Super Bowl:
The Rams were one unlucky two-point conversion away from earning home-field advantage in the playoffs, which may have been enough to get Sean McVay’s team to the Super Bowl.
It would have been easy – and maybe even sensible – for the Rams to just run it back and hope for better luck. Instead, they traded for Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, added a lockdown cornerback in Trent McDuffie, and then lured Aaron Donald out of retirement.
They were already one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy before those additions. Now, they’re the clear favorites. They check all the boxes you look for in a title contender:
Myles Garrett's addition played a big part in Aaron Donald coming out of retirement. (Ric Tapia/Getty Images)
The acquisition of Garrett commanded a lot of the offseason attention, but adding McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to the cornerback room could be the moves that propel L.A. over the championship hump. The Rams secondary could be pushed around and picked on last season. That’s not happening with two physical corners like McDuffie and Watson on the field. Even if opposing quarterbacks can stay upright long enough to get a pass off with Garrett and Donald collapsing the pocket, finding open receivers will be a challenge.
More concerns exist on the offensive side of the ball, where an injury to Davante Adams or Puka Nacua could leave the team lacking in big-play ability. The offensive line is thin, as well, and reigning MVP Matthew Stafford needs all the protection he can get now that he’s entering his age-38 season.
Still, this is the NFL's most talented roster that's led by one of the NFL’s best coaches in Sean McVay. This is a Super Bowl-or-bust season for Los Angeles.
The defending champs took a few hits in the offseason, losing running back Kenneth Walker and a handful of second-tier starters along the defense. Other than that, this is largely the same team that won a title in February, and they’d be the title favorites once again if not for L.A.’s busy offseason.
One thing we can bank on: Head coach Mike MacDonald will have his defense playing at an elite level once again. The defensive line has been the key to the unit’s success, and all of its key pieces return in 2026. The Seahawks are light at cornerback but will play with three safeties more often than not, so that’s more of a minor concern than it would be for other teams. There’s no reason to expect any falloff from this bunch.
If safety/slot defender Nick Emmanwori, an All-Rookie selection a year ago, makes the leap and plays at an All-Pro level, the Seahawks' defense may even improve over last season.
