For travellers hoping to secure a cheap European getaway in 2027, Ryanair has delivered a warning that could make early planning more important. The airline expects short-haul air fares across Europe to rise materially next summer if oil prices remain high.
The warning came as Ryanair announced cuts to its winter schedule to limit the financial impact of higher fuel costs. The prospect could affect millions of passengers who rely on low-cost airlines for affordable trips across the continent.
Ryanair said on Wednesday that persistently high oil prices could push European short-haul fares higher during summer 2027. The airline has hedged about 80% of its fuel costs until March 2027. However, a significant portion of its future fuel exposure remains linked to market prices.
Oil prices were trading at about $140 a barrel, according to the information cited in the Financial Times report. Ryanair said that if high oil prices continue into summer 2027, short-haul fares are likely to rise as airlines pass higher fuel costs on to passengers. The company also warned that competitors with less fuel-price protection could struggle to maintain their current capacity.
Ryanair is already reducing its exposure to higher fuel costs. The airline has lowered its passenger forecast for the 12 months to March 2027 from 216 million to 214 million. It expects the capacity reduction to reduce its winter losses from about €170 million to roughly €100 million. The cuts cover the weaker winter period between November and March.
Ryanair said reducing capacity was a sensible move while oil prices remained elevated and some fuel costs were not protected by hedging. For passengers, fewer flights can mean fewer seats on particular routes. If demand remains strong, reduced capacity can also put upward pressure on fares.
Ryanair's warning does not mean that every European flight will become more expensive. The outcome will depend heavily on oil prices and airline capacity decisions over the coming months. However, travellers planning popular summer destinations could face higher costs if fuel prices remain elevated and airlines reduce the number of available seats.
That could make timing more important for holidaymakers. Passengers who normally wait for last-minute low-cost fares may find fewer bargains if airlines operate tighter schedules. Families could feel the impact particularly strongly, as even a modest increase in the cost of each ticket can add significantly to the total price of a holiday.
The pressure is not limited to Ryanair. European airlines are also reviewing their capacity plans as fuel costs remain high. International Airlines Group, which owns British Airways and Vueling, has already abandoned plans to increase capacity during the year because of persistently higher oil prices.
Ryanair's warning comes as the wider industry prepares for what could be a difficult winter. Its strong fuel-hedging position provides some protection compared with airlines that have greater exposure to current market prices. But that protection becomes less certain as the contracts expire.
Despite the warning, Ryanair is not forecasting a collapse in demand. The airline expects summer traffic, covering April to October, to rise by more than 5%, from 138 million passengers to 145 million. Ryanair also expects to remain profitable, although it said earnings would be below the record level reported for 2026.
The airline carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% from a year earlier, while its load factor remained at 96%. That suggests demand for low-cost European travel remains strong.
Much will depend on oil prices. If they fall, the pressure on airlines could ease and fares may remain more competitive. If prices stay high into 2027, Ryanair expects higher fuel costs to feed through into European short-haul fares.
For travellers considering a 2027 holiday, the message is therefore one of uncertainty rather than certainty. Cheap flights have helped make European city breaks and beach holidays accessible to millions. Ryanair's latest warning suggests that keeping those trips affordable could become more difficult if fuel prices remain elevated.
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