AI-assisted research analysis by FutureKnowledge. Sources checked 19 October 2026. The measures described are a draft open for comment, except where stated. This is not investment advice.
China has proposed adding 40 technologies to its list of know-how that may not be exported, or may be exported only with a licence. The list covers the processes used to make solar panels, as well as artificial intelligence and biomedicine. Finished solar panels and other products are not covered. What is targeted is the factory know-how, equipment and engineering support that other countries need to build their own industries. For governments and companies trying to make solar components outside China, the draft could make that harder, slower and more expensive.
What happened
On Friday, 16 October, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Ministry of Science and Technology issued Announcement No. 48 of 2026. It proposes revising the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export. According to the announcement, the additions are:
- Artificial intelligence, 23 items: large models, AI agents, computing clusters and information processing. Technologies already public through open-source release or academic publication are excluded.
- Biomedicine, 5 items: cell and gene therapy, small nucleic acid drugs and pathogenic microorganisms. Licensing deals that do not transfer ownership can benefit from automatic-licensing facilitation.
- Photovoltaics, 12 items: polysilicon, wafer and cell manufacturing, including the key equipment that carries these technologies.
Public comments are open until 15 November 2026. One part takes effect immediately. From 16 October until the revised catalogue is issued, exporters must register the listed technologies on MOFCOM’s online platform before exporting them. This covers transferring ownership abroad, licensing for overseas use, and a foreign entity becoming the owner or controller of the technology, including deals that are already under way. The same details were reported by 21st Century Business Herald and Guandian.
Which solar technologies are targeted
Trade publication pv magazine, which reviewed the draft’s technical annex, described two tiers:
| Tier | Examples in the draft |
|---|---|
| Prohibited from export | Perovskite-silicon tandem cell production (182 mm or larger wafers, 30%+ efficiency); wide-format perovskite slot-die coating (1.1 m or wider); large fluidised-bed processes for trichlorosilane and silane; wafers 70 micrometres thick or thinner; certain edge-passivation methods for thin cells |
| Restricted (licence needed) | Engineering for polysilicon plants of 30,000 tonnes a year or more; advanced crystal-pulling and wafer-cutting; high-performance TOPCon, back-contact and heterojunction cell processes |
Reuters, as published by Business Recorder, described the same split. Fluidised-bed polysilicon production is cheaper and more energy-efficient than the dominant Siemens process. Perovskite and tandem cells are next-generation designs that could raise panel efficiency. TOPCon, heterojunction and back-contact cells are today’s mainstream high-efficiency technologies, so the “restricted” tier reaches into current factory investment, not just future research.
Why Beijing says it is doing this
MOFCOM cited national security, saying solar technologies are increasingly used in sensitive areas such as aerospace and defence. It said the aim is to prevent technologies “running out of control” while allowing normal scientific exchange, Reuters reported. Pv magazine reported the ministry’s statement that the measures “do not target any particular country, region or company”, and that technologies below the stated thresholds, as well as finished products made with them, fall outside the scope.
The commercial context is also clear. The International Energy Agency estimated in 2022 that China’s share of every main solar manufacturing stage, from polysilicon to modules, exceeded 80%, S&P Global reported. The United States, India and Europe are all trying to build domestic supply chains, and many of those factories depend on Chinese equipment and technical support. In April, Reuters reported that Chinese officials had held early talks with equipment makers about curbing exports of advanced solar-manufacturing equipment to the US, Technology Magazine noted. That article also said the world’s top ten suppliers of solar-cell manufacturing equipment are Chinese.
Who is more or less exposed
- Overseas cell and wafer projects that rely on Chinese lines or engineering support. Pv magazine expects near-term delays, higher compliance costs and limits on deploying advanced Chinese production technology abroad. New cell plants in the US, India, Europe and Southeast Asia that planned to license Chinese processes are the most exposed.
- Chinese manufacturers expanding abroad. Chinese companies that run or plan factories overseas could find it harder to transfer their own best processes to those plants. Pv magazine noted the rules could complicate that strategy.
- Module assemblers and solar developers. Finished cells and modules are not covered, so near-term panel supply should not be directly affected by the draft.
- AI and biotech dealmaking. The 23 AI items cover large models, agents and compute clusters, but open-source and published work is excluded. Cross-border licensing, acquisitions and joint ventures involving Chinese AI or gene-therapy developers now face pre-export registration, and possibly licensing later.
The India angle
India shows how much this matters. A Reuters report in July, published by Khaleej Times, said Indian firms had built about 200 GW of module capacity but only about 27 GW of cell capacity, and that about 95% of India’s imported solar cells came from China. Industry sources told Reuters then that China had already curbed exports of manufacturing technology, equipment and technical support to India. The draft would put such restrictions into formal rules.
Scenarios to watch
These are conditional scenarios for analysis, not predictions.
| If… | Then… |
|---|---|
| The catalogue is adopted largely as drafted after 15 November | Licensing of advanced Chinese cell and polysilicon technology abroad would need approval or be barred; overseas projects could slow and turn to non-Chinese equipment suppliers. |
| Thresholds are loosened after industry feedback | Mainstream TOPCon and heterojunction transfers could continue with paperwork, limiting disruption to current projects. |
| Licences are granted selectively by destination | Despite the “no specific country” statement, approval rates could vary, which companies would watch closely in the US and India. |
| Other governments respond with their own measures | Pv magazine flagged the risk of trade tensions or retaliation, which could add to tariffs on finished solar goods. |
What to watch next
- The close of the comment period on 15 November and the timing of the final catalogue.
- Whether companies rush to register or complete licensing deals before final rules.
- Responses from US, European and Indian officials and solar manufacturers’ associations.
- How the 23 AI items are defined in practice, especially for model licensing and data-centre projects abroad.
Bottom line
China is not stopping exports of solar panels. It is proposing to control the knowledge needed to make the most advanced ones, alongside parts of its AI and biotech know-how. For countries trying to reduce their dependence on Chinese supply chains, that raises the cost and time needed to build their own. The registration rule already applies, and the final lists, expected after 15 November, will show how far Beijing intends to go.
Method note: We compared the MOFCOM–MOST Announcement No. 48 of 2026 (primary source) with reporting by Reuters (via Business Recorder and Khaleej Times), pv magazine, 21st Century Business Herald, Guandian, Technology Magazine and S&P Global. Technical thresholds are as reported by pv magazine from the draft annex. The draft’s final form may differ.