It's remarkable how dominant Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have been over the past decade. Back in 2016, they accounted for a whopping 90% of the crypto market's total market cap. Today, they still account for a combined 70% of the crypto market cap.
So it will be extraordinarily difficult for any cryptocurrency to surpass the combined value of Bitcoin and Ethereum. But if there's one dark horse candidate that might be able to pull it off, it's Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), which ranks as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency in the world.
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Admittedly, a lot will need to go right for this scenario to play out. Right now, Bitcoin and Ethereum have a combined market cap of $1.8 trillion, while Solana has a total market cap of just $52 billion. So it will need to grow at an extraordinarily fast pace to make up this huge gap.
Let's say that Bitcoin and Ethereum grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% to 25% over the next five years. Their combined market cap would grow from $1.8 trillion to $5 trillion. That means Solana would need to deliver 100x gains to grow from a $52 billion asset to a $5 trillion asset.
The good news, if you're thinking about investing in Solana, is that it can grow at stratospheric rates. Back in 2023, for example, Solana skyrocketed by more than 900%. In 2024, Solana soared by 86%.
The only problem is that Solana tends to give back those gains. In 2022, for example, Solana lost 94% of its value during crypto winter. And in 2025, Solana lost 34% of its value as part of a broader crypto market sell-off.
Going forward, Solana needs a 100x catalyst for the math to work. Most likely, this will be a catalyst for decentralized finance (DeFi), the fastest-growing segment of the crypto world. Solana has been moving aggressively in areas ranging from stablecoins to asset tokenization, and this is likely where the rapid growth will occur.
In October 2023, investment firm VanEck proposed a scenario in which Solana could reach $3,211 by 2030. If Solana develops a "killer app" capable of onboarding 100 million users, it might deliver 35x gains. That's based on Solana's current price of $90.
That's still well short of the 100x gains required, so Solana will need to develop more than just a "killer app." It will also need to become a ubiquitous part of the modern global financial system, with investors using the Solana blockchain for their everyday financial needs.
The Solana Foundation refers to this scenario as Solana becoming "the Netflix of finance." That's the kind of major catalyst required for Solana to have any shot of becoming the most valuable cryptocurrency. It may not be the most likely outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility.
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