United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the planet is in 'uncharted waters' as El Niño intensifies towards what forecasters say could become one of the strongest events on record.
The warning came as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño is now 'firmly established' and is expected to strengthen into a very strong event over the coming months, with forecasts showing a near 100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through to February 2027, according to a WMO press release published on 3 September.
'El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,' Guterres said in a statement carried in the WMO release. 'The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.'
He added that rising sea surface temperatures meant the world is now 'in the danger zone of extreme weather', framing the coming months as a race between escalating risk and global efforts to prepare for it.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo echoed the warning, saying the event has 'the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world'. She said WMO and national weather services are undertaking what she called 'exceptional preparation and response', adding that there is 'no time to lose'.
Speaking separately at a Geneva press conference, Saulo went further, suggesting the event could become stronger than anything WMO has recorded since it began monitoring El Niño. If the current trajectory holds, she said, it could be 'literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades'.
El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically develops between March and June and peaks between November and February, reshaping rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the Pacific.
WMO's Niño 3.4 index, which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the key Pacific region, averaged 1.5°C above normal between May and July before climbing to 2°C above normal in July. Weekly readings from late July to mid-August ranged between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average, pointing to continued intensification.
Beneath the surface, the picture is even more extreme, with subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas running more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
🌡️ El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. WMO forecasts show ~100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027.A very strong El Niño ≠ same impacts everywhere.🆕 WMO El Nino Update: https://t.co/KUPq04jjkT pic.twitter.com/PAx1EZTCOH
For UK readers, the direct impact of El Niño tends to be less pronounced than in the tropics, but its knock-on effects can be global.
WMO's seasonal outlook points to above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas between September and November, alongside disrupted rainfall patterns.
Strong El Niño events can affect agricultural production and energy demand through changes in temperature and rainfall, with potential consequences for food and energy markets.
However, the scale and direction of these effects vary considerably by region and depend on other climate and economic factors.
The 2023–24 El Niño also contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, although WMO attributes the record temperature to the combined influence of long-term human-induced warming and the strong El Niño event. Saulo has warned that the current event could contribute to further exceptional global temperatures once it peaks.
