There are lots of very promising games coming up in the next few months, from GTA 6 to Control Resonant, and a reader has ranked their chances of being a smash hit or unfortunate flop.
The recent previews of upcoming games has further empathised how absolutely stacked the next few months are for games. It seems crazy that in order to avoid GTA 6, companies have instead opted to commit some kind of video game chicken by releasing all their flagship releases within days or weeks of each other.
It seems inevitable that some of these games are bound to be a commercial flop. It seems also possible, based on previews, that some of these games might also be in the running to win various accolades come awards season.
Here’s some of the games I have at least a passing interest in and whether I think they’ll do well both commercially and critically.
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From my understanding, turn-based strategy games have been a tough sell recently. I’m not sure the Star Wars affiliation will be enough to buck the trend. However, it seems that previews for Zero Company have been complimentary and it will get good review scores. Also, releasing late August might give it enough distance to shine before the September/October pile-up. On the other hand, releasing the same day as the Netflix GTA 6 preview possibly isn’t the best thing for a game’s success.
My prediction is an outside shout for a Game of the Year nomination and a dead cert for a nod in the sub-categories, such as best sim game. I also think it’s nailed on to be half price by the new year.
I loved Control, also Alan Wake 2 was great and Remedy seemingly must do enough business to keeping producing games. Alan Wake 2 apparently recently passed 2 million units sold and is therefore now earning profit. However, I do worry somewhat for Control Resonant. On paper it’s an easier sell than Alan Wake 2. More action-orientated and somewhat more mainstream. But the release date seems foolish. It releases nine days after Wolverine on PlayStation 5, the same day as Silent Hill: Townfall, and one day before EA Sports FC 27.
This seems risky and although there’s probably a diehard contingent of fans for the Alan Wake/Control shared universe, Remedy is taking a risk and might be overlooked in favour of other titles, by players who might at quieter points in the year have otherwise taken a punt.
I do, though, think it will get very good reviews and I’ll go out on a limb and say it will earn a nomination for Game of the Year in the main category. I think it might be a game that people eventually take notice of and come to perhaps later in the year, after it’s nominated for awards and turns up on best of lists. I reckon it’ll be a slow start but recoup its budget in time. Surely nailed on for a significant discount in the new year also.
Verdict: Critical hit, commercial hit (in time)
As already mentioned, Silent Hill: Townfall comes out the same day as Control Resonant and you’d imagine they might be a bit of overlap between fans of both, being as both are a bit weird and horror adjacent. Perhaps they need to market it as a Barbenheimer type thing. Silent Control or Resonant: Townfall perhaps? [Barbenheimer was two diametrically opposite films, not two with a similar audience – GC]
Based on no real basis but my own gut feeling I get the impression that Silent Hill is a more well-known franchise and given that horror survival games are in short supply it’ll actually do well enough to turn a profit quicker than Control. It doesn’t hurt that Halloween will only be round the corner when it releases. The other question is whether it’ll be any good. Silent Hill has been on a roll recently and I’ll go out on a limb and say Townfall will continue the trend.
On paper Marvel’s Wolverine is a surefire hit. The biggest Sony exclusive of the year and Insomniac have had great success with another Marvel property. However, Spider-Man, I think, has more mainstream appeal and is more likely to appeal to a bigger age demographic, given the gore and violence of Wolverine. Also, Marvel games other than Spider-Man haven’t fared well at all. I still think Wolverine will do well but I think it will struggle to hit the heights of Spider-Man and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a discount early next year.
From a critical perspective I think it’ll hit low to mid 80s on Metacritic, so not a failure but might not be what Sony and Insomniac expect.