The sombre mien—that’s what stayed with me. On Saturday, Mark Carney looked less like a prime minister briefing media on trade negotiations than a wartime leader telling his country a feared turn had finally arrived and preparing them for a long ordeal. The intense, all-out effort to stop crushing new tariffs had failed, with Carney grimly explaining that the United States insists on “short-term transactions” rather than “long-term partnerships” and that its commitments could no longer be assumed to hold.
American demands reportedly went well beyond tariffs, market access, and sectoral protections. They targeted Canada’s freedom to set domestic cultural policy, interpret agreements it had already signed, and conduct trade relations with third countries. The loss of our sovereignty was too high a price for preserving economic integration. What prime minister would accept Canada becoming a vassal state on his watch? With the collapse of talks, and Carney describing the country as being “attacked,” it’s hard not to feel like we have crossed into a different moment—that we are living in a slightly darker reality.
Throughout the weekend, The Walrus spoke to economists, policy experts, and political observers about what exactly has changed and what this new period might demand of Canada.
Their responses follow, sometimes edited for length and clarity.
“Greed and a fixation on security dominance may prove the downfall of the American economy.”
Erin O’Toole
President of ADIT North America, distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute, and former leader of the Conservative Party
Hold fast. That was the message I posted on social media when news broke that trade talks between Canada and the United States had fell apart, imposing $28 billion worth of new tariffs on Canadian exports.
Hold fast is an old naval term. When you heard the order, you needed to hold on to your sailing ropes to help the ship maintain course through a storm or battle and to avoid being swept overboard yourself. What I actually posted was the phrase tattooed on the knuckles of two gripped hands: a screenshot from a favourite film, Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World. Hold fast was a talisman for sailors of that era. They believed hard resolve and good fortune would help them survive whatever they faced on a voyage.
Since it appears the good ship Canada is heading into a trade war with the US, it is important to hold fast to our country and to one another. There is a second lesson we can take from the movie. The ship HMS Surprise was being pursued by a larger, faster French privateer ship called the Acheron. Captain Jack Aubrey (played wonderfully by Russell Crowe) decides to take on the more formidable vessel and gives a speech to rally his crew. “The Acheron is a tough nut to crack,” he says. “They mean to take us as a prize. And we are worth more to them undamaged. Their greed will be their downfall.”
It was appropriate for Canada to walk away from these talks. The Trump administration means to take us as a prize by brutally targeting our auto, manufacturing, forestry, and agricultural sectors with tariffs, while trying to leave other parts of the Canada–US trade relationship that benefit them undamaged. They want to maintain their unlimited, tariff-free access to Canadian oil, gas, uranium, potash, and other resources to help drive their policy of “energy dominance” but are unwilling to bargain fairly for it. Energy exports from Canada account for the trade imbalance Trump officials often gripe about.
They also gripe about dairy and unfairness in agricultural sectors, but that ignores the reality of modern food security. Every country supports its farmers; the difference is largely in how. Canada uses risk management and supply management programs, while the US relies on crop insurance, direct subsidy, and food assistance programs. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ranks Canada and the US at broadly similar support levels: 8.2 percent versus 7 percent, respectively. Both are well below the global average of 13.2 percent.
Canadians also hear that “only China and Canada” have imposed retaliatory tariffs in response to President Trump’s actions. But this is misleading: China did not have a free trade agreement with the US to begin with. Canada has struck deals from the Auto Pact of the 1960s to the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement—negotiated by the first Trump administration and praised by Trump at the time. This administration now wants to ignore agreements it signed, impose tariffs on industries deliberately built around North American supply chains, and dictate every aspect of its relationship with Canada. This is not only unfair. It is unwise.
Greed and a fixation on security dominance may prove the downfall of the American economy. There are already warning signs. In recent weeks, long-term US borrowing costs have risen sharply—historically, an indicator of pending recession. Tariffs are adding to inflationary pressures. National debt levels are soaring. The still-raging war with Iran is dangerously depleting American military inventories. As the US economy turns from dominant to stagnant, voters will weigh in later this year. Smoother seas are visible on the horizon: hold fast.
“It will get a lot worse before it gets any better.”
Fen Osler Hampson
Chancellor’s professor and professor of international affairs at Carleton University and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada–US Relations
“They asked too much and offered too little,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Saturday after negotiations with the United States to avoid a new round of tariffs broke down. Make no mistake about what comes next: a full-blown trade war. Donald Trump is imposing 50 percent tariffs on $28 billion worth of Canadian exports, on top of already punitive duties on steel, aluminum, lumber, and autos. Carney is threatening to strike back “dollar-for-dollar” with tariffs of his own on US goods. Trump, in turn, has warned that any Canadian retaliation will be met in kind.
This path goes only one way: escalation. It will get a lot worse before it gets any better. It is also a war with no winners, only losers. American producers and consumers will face even higher prices from Trump’s new tariffs. So, too, will Canadians as Carney’s counter-tariffs take effect. Our producers and small- and medium-sized businesses will also take a big hit. Plant closures and job losses will mount. Trade in manufactured goods could cease altogether. It is not just the undoing of forty years of integration; it is the end of an open border.
