Scotland is on course to miss key climate targets unless ministers use the forthcoming Programme for Government to strengthen legislation, including a much stronger Heat in Buildings Bill, campaigners have warned.
“We know we’re not currently installing clean heating systems – such as heat pumps – at anything like the pace required,” said Claire Daly, head of policy and advocacy at WWF Scotland.
Figures show that progress on clean heating is currently far too slow to meet Scotland’s climate targets Recent data suggests heat-pump installations are falling, to 6422 in 2025, with only 2124 recorded in the first half of this year.
The current incremental growth is far below the sustained acceleration required to decarbonise buildings by 2045.
Without a clear and ambitious plan, Scotland will fall even further behind the pace needed to cut emissions from homes and buildings. The Government’s own independent advisers, the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), states that installations will need to increase to 170,000 a year by 2035.
Daly said: “The forthcoming Programme for Government will be a crucial test for the new Scottish Government to demonstrate its commitment to tackling the climate crisis. We believe creating warmer homes, lowering emissions and ensuring a fair transition away from fossil fuel heating should be at the top of its agenda.
“Numbers of heat pump installations remain stubbornly in the low thousands, when they need to scale up to hundreds of thousands over the next decade. A strong Heat in Buildings Bill would provide the certainty households and businesses need, creating a clean heat supply chain, and help protect people from volatile fossil fuel prices. “Vitally we need a clear timetable for phasing out polluting heating systems. Delay would make the transition harder, more expensive and less fair.”
Gillian Campbell from Existing Home Alliance said: “Scotland is far behind where it needs to be on making homes warmer, more energy efficient and cheaper to heat. Evidence shows that upgrading our homes could reduce respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, cut childhood asthma rates and support improved mental health.
“Unless the Scottish Government moves much faster to tackle fuel poverty and support people on the lowest incomes through the transition to clean heating, we will miss this opportunity to improve people’s health and wellbeing, and the most vulnerable will be left behind in cold, unhealthy homes.
After years of slow progress, the Scottish Government risks losing credibility on climate action. The Programme for Government is an opportunity to show renewed ambition, with a clear plan to cut emissions from our homes while ensuring those least able to afford the transition receive the strongest support.”
According to Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) heat-pump deployment statistics, Scotland installed around 1350 certified retrofit heat pumps in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 1053 in the same period of 2026 – a year-on-year decline of about 22%.
Scottish Green MSP Maggie Chapman said: “WWF is absolutely right. Scotland needs a strong Heat in Buildings Bill, and ministers do not need to start from scratch.
“When Patrick Harvie was a Green minister he set out a serious plan to make our homes warmer and more energy efficient, while giving households, businesses and the clean heat industry a clear route away from expensive and polluting fossil fuel heating.
"Unfortunately, much of that ambition was stripped away after the Greens left government. We have lost years when we should have been insulating homes, cutting bills and rapidly expanding clean heating. While climate targets are of course welcome, it is not the targets that will install a single heat pump or make a single cold home warmer. It is action.
“The Programme for Government should restore the ambition that was lost, with clear standards, a credible timetable for moving away from fossil fuel heating, and proper financial support so that those on the lowest incomes benefit first.
