U.S. stockpiles of some of America’s key defensive missiles have been seriously depleted – some estimates say by more than two-thirds – since the Iran war began in February. It will take years to replace them, say analysts who add that the shortage could embolden U.S. rivals, such as China and Russia.
Gen. Dan Caine, the Pentagon’s top officer, warned the White House about potential shortages of Patriot and other missiles weeks before it decided to attack the Iranian regime, news articles at the time noted.
More recently, President Donald Trump has reportedly demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about the shortages, which are already influencing how the United States conducts war. The White House called off attacks against Iran due to concerns about troop defense given the depletion of interceptor stocks, the New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported.
The military’s top officer warned the Trump administration about a possible missile shortage if it attacked Iran. Stockpiles are now depleted, and plans to rebuild them focus less on the current war than on preparing for possible future conflicts.
Publicly, however, President Trump has continued to say that the U.S. has “massive amounts” of missiles. He also threatened to prosecute “treasonous” leakers.
In response, retired Marine Corps Col. Mark Cancian, who has conducted widely cited studies tracking depleted U.S. missile stockpiles, says that his numbers came from public records, not leaks. A defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Mr. Cancian also says that he’s ready to show the work that went into his reports.
“If two analysts at a Washington think tank can come up with these numbers,” he says, “then the Chinese government – with tens of thousands of intelligence officials and way more sources of information – can come up with the same numbers.”
Patriot missiles are valuable because they are versatile from a military perspective, designed to handle relatively low-flying threats – ranging from incoming missiles to drones and aircraft – and leaving the more specialized THAAD system to defend against high-flying, faster missiles.
These Patriot stockpiles are down about 65% since the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran, according to the CSIS study, co-written by Mr. Cancian, and based on budget materials and publicly released information. The exact numbers are classified. But by these estimates, there are fewer than 850 Patriots left in America’s arsenal.
To defend U.S. forces stationed at bases in the Middle East from more high-flying Iranian ballistic missiles, which are harder to intercept, the U.S. has THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missiles. Since the war began, analysts estimate that supplies of those are down by anywhere from about 50% (by CSIS’ count) to some 80% (as cited in a widely circulated CNN report).
The U.S. is taking several major steps to boost its missile stockpiles.
It has a $58 billion, seven-year contract with Lockheed Martin to help increase Patriot missile production from roughly 620 to 2,000 a year.
Under another $35 billion contract, the defense contractor is also slated to ramp up THAAD missile production from 96 to some 400 per year over seven years.
The Pentagon said Friday that it is increasing production of ship-fired SM-3 interceptor missiles, designed to take out ballistic missiles, which “form the backbone” of naval defenses, according to a Pentagon statement.
“We are stabilizing our supply chains, expanding munitions production and putting our entire defense industrial base on a wartime footing,” said Michael Duffey, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment.
