NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks with political consultant Sarah Longwell about Trump's low approval rating and high gas prices, as affordability shadows the approaching midterm election.
Political strategist Sarah Longwell joins us once again. She publishes the website The Bulwark and is author of the forthcoming book "How To Eat An Elephant: One Voter At A Time." Sarah, interesting title. Good morning.
INSKEEP: We just heard Franco say that Americans do seem to hold Trump responsible for high prices – that they're getting frustrated, even people in his base – but how does that reflect what you hear directly from voters?
LONGWELL: When I listen to voters, they absolutely blame Trump for this, and there's two reasons. One is voters know that Trump instituted the tariffs, that that was a pet project of his. There's no way to push the tariffs onto Joe Biden. And then the second is that because Donald Trump didn't ask Congress, didn't go to the American people and try to convince them that the war in Iran was a good idea, they know it was unilaterally his. And so there is no pushing the blame off to Joe Biden on this one. Trump owns both those things, and both of those issues are things voters connect directly to higher prices.
INSKEEP: And when you're listening to people in focus groups – I guess my next question. So they express this frustration, they understand how it works, they identify Trump as the cause of some of their problems, but is that the voting – the decisive voting issue for a lot of people?
LONGWELL: Without a doubt. You know, we open every focus group with the same question, and I've done hundreds and hundreds. And we say, how do you think things are going in the country? And right now, even Trump voters say they're not going well, and then they organically bring up, things are too expensive, gas is too expensive and the war in Iran is a disaster. Voters are actively upset at Donald Trump over the war in Iran. They expected – and they think he expected – that it was going to be sort of another Venezuela where, you know, you go in, you go out. But the fact that we are mired in a new war is deeply frustrating to his base of voters.
INSKEEP: The president, of course, dismisses the value of polls, says they're, quote, "demoralization operations," and we should acknowledge he's done better than the polling would suggest in previous elections. Do you have reason to think the president is more popular than he sure seems?
LONGWELL: I do not. And, look, the polling for him, really who it matters for is not him directly but for the people who are running in 2026 elections. And they are going to wear his low approval rating – his historically low approval rating – like albatross – like an albatross around their necks.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about the people who are on the ballot. How do voters view Republicans in Congress, some of whom seem to privately disagree, and sometimes even publicly disagree, with things the president is doing, but they almost never do anything about it?
LONGWELL: Well, once again, Donald Trump has made some choices in who he has nominated – right? – because he's been on a revenge tour against people like John Cornyn in Texas. They have candidates like Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton is a notoriously corrupt sort of philanderer. You know, and because he took out an incumbent, you now have a Senate seat in Texas that is competitive because James Talarico is running quite a good race and Ken Paxton has long been loathed by many Republicans.
You even have states – if I had told you a year ago that places like Iowa, the Iowa Senate, were going to be in play, that Ohio was going to look the way it does, people wouldn't – I think analysts generally wouldn't have believed it. But all of those states are in play specifically because Donald Trump is as – is doing as poorly with voters as he is.
INSKEEP: You know, everything you say is true, and there are a lot of Republicans in Texas, for example, who don't like Ken Paxton, and yet, Ken Paxton has won multiple elections over multiple years in Texas. Isn't it possible that in the end, a lot of conservative-leaning voters will just disqualify the Democrat in their own minds and vote for the Republican they don't love?
LONGWELL: I think that's right. Look, as you get sort of out of the summer, you're always going to see some tightening. I do think that what's going to go on in this election, though, because people are so frustrated with prices and they're so frustrated with Donald Trump, is you do end up with an enthusiasm gap where Democrats are extremely motivated to vote and Republicans are extremely demotivated to vote because there is no agenda that they like, that they're looking to protect. And because Trump himself is not on the ballot, you don't get the benefit of all the low-information voters who are kind of Trump-only voters, and so that sets up – but look, I think that Texas is always an extraordinary reach, but every condition to potentially win a federal election in Texas is currently happening.
INSKEEP: Very briefly, Jon Ossoff, who's running for reelection to the Senate in Georgia – Democrat – has gotten a lot of traction on social media with speeches in which he says, look at the corruption in this administration. The president's son does a deal in Central Asia while you are paying higher prices, for example. Does that example resonate beyond social media with voters you talk with?
LONGWELL: It absolutely does. And what Jon Ossoff is doing, and I wish a lot of other Democrats would study and emulate, is that he's drawing the contrast with corruption. It's not enough just to say Trump is corrupt. You have to make sure that voters understand that it's actually hurting them. That Trump's corruption, that his focus on the ballroom, his focus on, you know, his arch and naming things – Lake Ontario – all of that stuff is, in many ways, both a distraction, but also he is focused on that while not focused on lowering prices for voters, and that's what they care about. That's what they hired him to do.
