Scotland could fall 35,000 homes short of its affordable housing target unless action is taken to tackle rising costs and capacity pressures.
New analysis by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde suggests the Scottish Government’s target of delivering 110,000 affordable homes by 2032 is unlikely to be met under current conditions.
The report estimates that around 75,000 affordable homes could be delivered, leaving a potential shortfall of 35,000.
The research was commissioned by the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations and the Association of Local Authority Chief Housing Officers.
It identified rising construction costs, inflation and limited funding as major barriers to delivery.
While the Scottish Government has committed ÂŁ4.9 billion in investment, the report says funding benchmarks have not kept pace with real-world construction costs.
This has left housing providers facing financial pressures that make it harder to deliver new homes within existing budgets.
The challenges are particularly severe in rural and island communities, where construction costs are often higher, although urban areas are also experiencing pressure.
The report says long-term investment, closer cooperation across the housing system and action to address shortages in planning and construction capacity will be needed to close the gap.
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Richard Meade, chief executive of the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations, said: "This independent analysis from the Fraser of Allander Institute reveals that while the Scottish Government’s housing targets are ambitious, current conditions mean they are unlikely to be delivered.
"The analysis suggests that the headline target of delivering 110,000 affordable homes by 2032 is likely to fall short by around 35,000 homes unless action is taken to address rising building costs and capacity issues.
"Despite the significant work of housing associations, local authorities and delivery partners to build the homes Scotland needs, there remains a significant gap between targets set by the Scottish Government and the funding and capacity needed to deliver them.
