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Tuesday’s contest to become Wisconsin’s Democratic nominee for Governor has unexpectedly become one of the most chaotic stories of the 2026 cycle.
First, the popular incumbent Governor said he wouldn’t seek a third term. His Lieutenant Governor jumped in the race. So did his former Lieutenant Governor. Both have since dropped out, one felled by financial mismanagement in her campaign and one allegedly dispatched by a MeToo-styled scandal.
The chaotic scramble is now down to two unlikely candidates: Francesca Hong and David Crowley. She is a democratic socialist who has rocketed in the polls despite concerns about her viability in November (and her position on, of all things, Thanksgiving). He is a steady-as-she-goes county bureaucrat who suspended his campaign and booked a vacation to Jamaica—before canceling the trip and re-joining the race 10 days later, this time with the backing of the outgoing Governor.
“The one thing that I've learned is to buy travel insurance,” Crowley tells me between campaign stops. The no-nonsense, disciplined executive of Wisconsin’s largest county is now the fledgling hope of national Democrats, who fear Hong, a far-left state assembly member, is doomed to deliver to Republicans the corner office in one of the few remaining battleground states. In fact, the biggest spender in the race thus far is an effort linked to the Republican Governors Association—to boost Hong.
“You can't win this primary on ideology alone,” Crowley says. “You have to be able to build a winning coalition to make sure that we can get over the hump come November and defeat the Republicans.”
But it’s going to be a tough lift. Tom Tiffany, a three-term congressman and the presumptive Republican nominee, raised more than $15 million, thanks in no small part to a $10 million transfer from the state GOP. By contrast, the Democrats’ top fundraiser, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, picked up about $1.4 million before he was forced to the sidelines.
“While democracy can be messy, can be chaotic—just like this primary is—we still have one ultimate goal, which is to make sure that we defeat Tom Tiffany in November,” Crowley says.
Polling this cycle once again is proving as reliable as a Ouija board. Just ask Wisconsin’s neighbor Michigan, which last week saw what seemed like a slam-dunk Democratic contest for Senate turn into a squeaker.
Wisconsin is similarly a hinky place that can be hard to poll, but the most recent ones show Democrats have a shot at holding the Governor’s gig.
Hong, a self-described socialist, has ignited the interest of many of the state’s Democrats, while terrifying others who fear she’s unelectable. She’s recently made national news for walking back past social media posts that advocated abolishing the police and canceling Thanksgiving for "celebrating colonialism." ("I don't want to cancel it," she insisted last week. "I actually love it.")
Crowley is campaigning like the underdog that he is, and hoping that the recent tighter-than-expected outcome in Michigan is a sign that the race in Wisconsin isn’t what it seems.
One factor in his favor: the polls show the box with the biggest share of the Democratic vote in Wisconsin is the one for undecided voters. Heading into the final push, about half of Democrats hadn’t made up their minds. And the race’s constant churn—frontrunners dropping out, Crowley in then out, then back in with endorsements galore—has left the field decidedly unsettled.
Crowley suggests the messiness of the primary is because the President is messing with Democrats’ heads. “The Democratic Party, we have been reacting and responding so much to Donald Trump, that he is defining us for us, and that we've been playing defense for so long that we've forgotten what it means to be on the offense,” Crowley tells me.