The yellow fever virus is reemerging in regions where it hadn't been seen for decades. Warmer temperatures and extreme weather could make conditions more favorable for the mosquitoes that carry the virus.
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Yellow fever is appearing in regions that haven't seen cases of the disease in years, largely as a result of climate change.
Historically, the virus ravaged cities across the Americas, Europe and Africa, until a vaccine was introduced in 1937 and its range shrunk significantly. But now, as climate change creates favorable conditions for virus-carrying mosquitoes, scientists are seeing outbreaks in unexpected areas.
"Yellow fever is a highly deadly disease," Dr. Joelle Ivy Rosser, an infectious-disease researcher at Stanford University, told Live Science, "so any environmental pressures that increase the likelihood of future yellow fever virus outbreaks … is highly concerning."
How is climate change contributing to this pattern, and could it get worse in the future?
Yellow fever is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the Orthoflavivirus flavi virus, better known as yellow fever virus (YFV). The infection causes fever, muscle aches, headaches and vomiting. About 15% of cases become severe, with patients showing jaundiced skin and eyes, bleeding from the mouth, eyes, nose and stomach, or organ failure.
Primates, such as howler monkeys, carry the yellow fever virus, which then gets picked up mosquitoes that bite the monkeys and later spread the germ to humans.
Devastating yellow fever epidemics spread in the 17th to 19th centuries, before the development of a vaccine. Nowadays, an estimated 31,000 to 82,000 yellow fever deaths occur each year; severe cases have an estimated fatality rate of 20% to 50%.
Most yellow fever infections are a result of spillover from nonhuman primates; mosquitoes bite monkeys that carry the virus, such as howler monkeys, and then the infected mosquitoes bite humans. Several types of mosquitoes carry the virus, but the species Aedes aegypti is the main vector for yellow fever in cities, where high population density can make outbreaks especially severe.
Although there is an effective vaccine for yellow fever, cases have been on the rise in the past three decades. This led the World Health Organization (WHO) to set out a strategy in 2017 for eliminating yellow fever epidemics by 2026 through outbreak prevention and containment.
Climate-change-driven warming and extreme weather events may have heightened yellow fever risk over the past few decades, experts say. Rising temperatures make mosquitoes bite more because heat makes their metabolisms more active, said Dr. Seth Judson, an infectious-disease physician-scientist at UCLA. Warming also cuts down the virus's extrinsic incubation period, meaning the time it takes for the virus to replicate in a newly infected mosquito and then get passed on to another person, he told Live Science.
Changing weather patterns play a role, too. In 2017-2018, Brazil saw its first yellow fever outbreak in a city in almost a century. That outbreak, primarily in Belo Horizonte and São Paulo, was likely a result of drought, according to one study.
Extremes of weather in either direction can exacerbate mosquito-borne disease transmission
While heavy rainfall creates a breeding ground for mosquitoes, in this case, drought pushed forest-based mosquitoes — as well as YFV carriers like marmosets and howler monkeys — closer to cities as the animals searched for water. Drier conditions can also prompt dehydrated mosquitoes to bite more as they search for fluids, study co-author Jamie Caldwell, a disease ecologist at Princeton University, told Live Science.
