Sept. 02, 2026, 3:02 p.m. ET
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Decorah, Iowa
“Compared to my grandfather, I’m not a farmer.”
That’s how Josh Manske, a farmer from Algona, Iowa, feels. His grandfather provided for five children by raising 800 head of livestock and farming hundreds of acres. By contrast, Mr. Manske juggles a farm drainage operation and sells real estate alongside growing corn and soybeans.
These days, it’s not possible to get by just growing crops, he says. “That is not the [agricultural world] that we, for the most part, live in anymore.”
Rural Iowa went heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Now, farmers there are wrestling with the economic effects of the president’s Iran war and tariff policies.
Soon, even those extra endeavors might not be enough. Between tariffs and the Iran war, America’s farmers say they’re facing the worst economic outlook in years – and there’s no sign that things will improve anytime soon.
The last few years have felt like a recession, says Mr. Manske. “Where’s the light at the end of this tunnel?”
Farmers have long been used to difficult conditions and uncertainty, starting with the weather. But many say they’re now facing a perfect storm, squeezed by soaring operating costs even as the price they can command for their product falls through the floor because of tariffs and supply outpacing demand.
“Our farmers are reporting that their farms are on the brink of a crisis,” says Aaron Lehman, president of the board of the Iowa Farmers Union, which represents mostly small- and medium-size commodity farmers. The challenges have been worsening for years, he says. But “they’re hitting high points now.”
Rural voters, long a conservative constituency, delivered 94 of Iowa’s 99 counties to Donald Trump in the 2024 election. But many of the current problems besetting farmers are a result of the president’s policies, and in some farming communities, patience might be wearing thin. This cycle, red states with large agricultural economies – including Iowa, Texas, and Ohio – have competitive Senate and House races. If rural voters stay home, it would likely spell losses for Republicans.
The volatility hitting farmers impacts other sectors in these states, too – such as agricultural manufacturing, which employs many people in rural communities, says Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. In Iowa, where roughly one-third of voters are independents, “conditions are fairly ripe for Republicans to lose a lot.”
Diesel and fertilizer prices are spiking because of the Iran war, causing some farmers to cut back. At the same time, they’ve been roiled by numerous trade wars started by President Trump, first hitting the soybean market when the administration took action against China, and now dinging corn and ethanol producers as talks with Canada devolve. A recent move by Mr. Trump to temporarily slash tariffs on beef imports drew a swift outcry from Republicans in Congress, who saw it as a betrayal of America’s ranchers.
Meanwhile, the Farm Bill – three years overdue for renewal – is stalled in the U.S. Senate as Democrats and Republicans haggle over proposed cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, in the legislation. A $12 billion emergency aid package for farmers is also stalled.
Unsure about future markets for their crops, many farmers are leveraging less and planting more conservatively.
“What does the uncertainty do? It makes farmers go, ‘Maybe I pull back a little bit, or maybe I don’t buy as much fertilizer this year,’” says John Crespi, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. “That has ripple effects throughout the whole farm economy.”
