Tony Burke understands the political sensitivities and the backlash he is likely to face when attempting to change any aspect of the migration program. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)<\/p>\n
"We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come."<\/p>\n
It's 25 years since John Howard delivered this enduring line. It defined the Coalition's successful 2001 election campaign. Delivering on this pledge has been the expectation of voters ever since.<\/p>\n
But how much control does any government really have over the immigration system?<\/p>\n
Not enough. At least according to those in the Albanese government now seeking to exert some greater control over the system in an effort to drive migration levels down.<\/p>\n
If stopping asylum seeker boats was the great immigration challenge in decades past, achieving a lower net overseas migration (NOM) figure has become the new political test.<\/p>\n
The difficulty is not everything that makes up the NOM is easy to control, particularly those elements of the system that are "demand driven".<\/p>\n
Chris Bowen served more than two bruising years in the immigration portfolio as asylum seeker boat arrivals shot up during the Gillard government's time in office. (ABC News: Dave Sciasci)<\/p>\n
"Ministers for immigration don't always have direct levers," Chris Bowen noted yesterday. He served more than two bruising years in the immigration portfolio as asylum seeker boat arrivals shot up during the Gillard government's time in office, before Labor finally agreed to restore the "lever" of offshore processing.<\/p>\n
The challenge facing Labor now isn't so much boat arrivals. It's the demand-driven elements of the migration program, as Bowen himself has acknowledged: "If a business needs a temporary skilled worker that is something that automatically happens."<\/p>\n
The government can change occupation priority lists, salary thresholds and other conditions, but there is no hard cap on the number of temporary skilled workers employers can bring in each year.<\/p>\n
Nor is there an annual limit on the number of working holiday visas (backpackers) or family reunion visas for partners and dependent children.<\/p>\n
Then there are those on bridging visas, including students appealing orders to return home or those who've lodged asylum claims after arriving in Australia. The number of bridging visas hit a record high of more than 430,000 earlier this year.<\/p>\n
All these categories contribute to net overseas migration.<\/p>\n
And while the NOM figure has fallen significantly from its post-COVID high of more than 500,000, the result each year continues to overshoot what the government has forecast in the budget.<\/p>\n