\u2018Unprecedented\u2019 weather pattern over Pacific Ocean to be felt worldwide with severe droughts expected in southern hemisphere<\/p>\n
The El Ni\u00f1o event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest for more than a 100 years, the UK\u2019s Met Office has said.<\/p>\n
Increased rainfall and storms are forecast to hit the UK this autumn as a result of the \u201cunprecedented\u201d weather pattern, which will also cause severe droughts in the southern hemisphere, the Met Office warned.<\/p>\n
Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said a typical El Ni\u00f1o involves Pacific sea temperatures rising by more than 1C, \u201cwith 2C being a really big event\u201d. This year Pacific sea temperatures are set to rise by 3C. This will make this El Ni\u00f1o \u201cthe largest since the 19th century\u201d, according to the Met Office.<\/p>\n
Speaking to BBC Radio 4\u2019s Today programme, Scaife said: \u201cWe\u2019re expecting the biggest El Ni\u00f1o for over a century, peaking at something over 3C. That is unheard of in modern climate records \u2026 it\u2019s up 2C degrees already.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said the impacts would be felt worldwide, adding they would be \u201cparticularly strong throughout the tropics, where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America and the west Pacific\u201d.<\/p>\n
He said: \u201cThen there are wave-like disturbances that come out from the tropics and affect places like the UK. So we already see signals for increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time.\u201d<\/p>\n
There is also a heightened risk of drought in southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe \u2013 including the UK \u2013 is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions, the Met Office said.<\/p>\n
The El Ni\u00f1o will also drive an increase in global average temperature, with 2027 forecast to be the warmest year on record.<\/p>\n
Dr Nick Dunstone, a science fellow at the Met Office, said: \u201cDuring large El Ni\u00f1o events, significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
\u201cHence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the preindustrial period.\u201d<\/p>\n
A series of record heatwaves and a lack of rainfall in recent months has brought the driest July in 190 years and has pushed almost three-quarters (71.3%) of England, and all of Wales, into drought, putting severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.<\/p>\n
Many areas of the country are facing water shortages as reservoir levels have fallen to 62.6% \u2013 16.3% lower than is expected for this time of year, according to Defra.<\/p>\n
After an emergency meeting to discuss the heatwave last week, Andy Burnham said: \u201cWe might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Ni\u00f1o and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.\u201d<\/p>\n
Parts of the country were hit by heavier showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with the north-west of England seeing the wettest conditions in the last 24 hours, with 52.5mm of rain falling over the seaside town of Morecambe in Lancashire.<\/p>\n