The UK is set to experience more storms and rain over the upcoming autumn and winter seasons caused by an \u201cunprecedented\u201d El Nino event, forecasters have warned.<\/p>\n
El Nino\u00a0is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, impacting global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.<\/p>\n
The natural warming of sea temperatures is forecast to reach more than 3C in the coming months, making this year\u2019s weather event \u201cthe largest since the 19th century\u201d, according to the Met Office.<\/p>\n
It creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe \u2013 including the UK \u2013 is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe should be clear that this is an unprecedented event\u201d, Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, said.<\/p>\n
\u201cI have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added: \u201cA typical El Nino leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2C, with 2C being a really big event.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis implies that if the forecast is accurate \u2013 and other forecast systems show similar extreme values \u2013 then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.\u201d<\/p>\n
El Nino events also drive an increase in global average temperature, with 2027 forecast to be the warmest year on record.<\/p>\n
\u201cDuring large El Nino events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino,\u201d Met Office Science Fellow, Dr Nick Dunstone said.<\/p>\n
\u201cHence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period\u201d.<\/p>\n
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