(Bloomberg Opinion) — Fresh off a blockbuster public markets debut, Unitree Robotics\u2019 founder Wang Xingxing conceded that his company still hasn\u2019t figured out how to make humanoids truly useful.<\/p>\n
Robots can perform well in controlled settings, but are still far from a general-purpose technology in the real world, Wang acknowledged\u00a0during a keynote at the World Robot Conference in Beijing on Thursday. Even so, he expects\u00a0\u201cmass-market\u201d\u00a0reach was within a decade. That\u2019s very optimistic.<\/p>\n
Whether it\u2019s Wang or Elon Musk peddling visions of the future, a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted in the humanoid boom.\u00a0For all the hype, they\u00a0still faces\u00a0a steep climb toward practical commercial uses \u2014\u00a0and may never reach the point where most people want one in their homes. Flashy demos and viral stunts\u00a0have made it dangerously easy to mistake PR performance for technical progress.<\/p>\n
One of the biggest obstacles, as I\u2019ve argued before, is giving these mechanical bodies a brain. Wang said the hardware lacks sufficiently capable world models, or AI systems that let machines understand and navigate the physical environment rather than merely process language. The best humanoid brains\u00a0currently have\u00a0the ability to perform\u00a0with only the equivalent of 10% of the human mind, JPMorgan Chase & Co.\u00a0notes. It\u2019s proven a much more difficult task than just scaling up large language models.\u00a0<\/p>\n
For all my misgivings, humanoids may prove to be stickier than other tech fads. Few companies can get a marketing video instantly picked up by tabloids around the world, yet Unitree regularly does. Its clips rack up hundreds of millions of views. Humans have long been beguiled by machines built in our own image, in a way they\u2019ve never been by cryptocurrencies or metaverse real estate. That fascination isn\u2019t disappearing anytime soon.<\/p>\n
The economics of physical AI, however, are less enchanting. Chinese humanoids are significantly cheaper compared to Western offerings, but still prohibitively expensive for mass adoption. Costs would have to plunge by at least half before they could be commercially viable, the Mercator Institute for China Studies estimates.<\/p>\n
China nonetheless has an early advantage, especially in costs. Deep electric vehicle supply chains provide an edge. Data show\u00a0it produces roughly 70% of the world\u2019s actuators, which convert energy into motion, and can comprise up to half the total costs of humanoids. It\u2019s no wonder that US robotics startups are stuffing their suitcases with parts during trips to the country. And Chinese firms shipped more than 97% of global humanoid robots in the first half of 2026, according to data from San Francisco-based Smart Analytics Global.<\/p>\n
But as with EVs, competition is already fierce. Unitree might be the closest to a household name, but China had more than 150 humanoid robot companies last year. This year, AgiBot already overtook Unitree to become the world\u2019s largest vendor. Picking eventual winners will take time. \u00a0<\/p>\n
There\u2019s another problem Unitree itself has previously acknowledged: Most of its robots are still bought by researchers rather than for true commercial applications. Can these academic hobbyists truly prop up a multibillion-dollar company? Founder Wang\u2019s former employer, SZ DJI Technology Co., suggests they can at least provide a launchpad. The drone maker began by selling low-cost products largely to consumers and tinkerers before becoming the\u00a0hardware giant it is today.<\/p>\n
There are signs the transition is beginning for Unitree, too. Humanoids for industrial and commercial applications represented more than 70% of global shipments in the first half of 2026, up from roughly 50% last year, according to SAG. That\u2019s encouraging, but it\u2019s still unclear how many of these are mostly for display at front desks or bought by government agencies eager to support the physical AI boom. For investors, who\u2019s buying these robots \u2014 and why \u2014 will matter more than shipment figures alone.<\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s geopolitics.\u00a0Washington last month barred the import of foreign-made \u201cadvanced robotic devices,\u201d including humanoids and quadrupeds. Analysts have said\u00a0that the US accounted for as much as 18% of Unitree\u00a0revenue last year. Losing those sales hurts, but losing access to feedback from American researchers and\u00a0hobbyists\u00a0may sting just as much at this stage.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve watched humanoids deployed in almost every imaginable setting. The Buddhist monk robot was a publicity stunt. Companion bots I saw operating in eldercare facilities in Tokyo did little to convince me that this future was around the corner. Dancing, serving beer or folding laundry in controlled conference settings make for a good show. The real opportunity is far less glamorous: the dirty, dangerous and dull jobs that humans don\u2019t want. That\u2019s where Unitree and its peers must prove themselves, and not merely by performing the work, but by doing it safely, repeatedly and cheaply. A decade may not be enough.<\/p>\n
The march of the humanoids may eventually catch up with the hype.\u00a0For now, the risk is that investors are the ones sprinting ahead.<\/p>\n
This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.<\/p>\n
Catherine Thorbecke is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia tech. Previously she was a tech reporter at CNN and ABC News.<\/p>\n