Bob Iger and Josh Kushner plan to buy the Los Angeles Lakers at a record-setting price of $12.5 billion. The best argument for that price: The value of sports TV deals is the one thing that keeps going up, even as the rest of TV contracts.<\/p>\n
But even though that's been true for years, it doesn't mean it will always be true. One hint that things might be changing: The all-powerful NFL \u2014 the thing that keeps TV afloat \u2014 is starting to see some pushback from its TV partners, led by Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch's Fox.<\/p>\n
In 2026, it is very hard to imagine a world where the NFL isn't the most powerful force in media. But John Ourand, who covers sports media for Puck, makes a case that its power could at least be checked in the years to come.<\/p>\n
You can listen to our entire conversation, which also includes a look at Apple's sports strategy, and the WNBA's approach to media deals, on my Channels podcast. The following is an edited excerpt of our chat:<\/p>\n
Peter Kafka: If Bob Iger and Josh Kushner are buying the Lakers at a $12.5 billion valuation, that means they think it will be worth even more in the future. What's the argument for that?<\/p>\n
John Ourand: In the past, all the valuations of [pro sports] teams were heavily weighted by the fact that media rights deals keep going up by 10%, 20% per year.<\/p>\n
But media executives I talk to say, "If they're basing [the Lakers] valuation on future media rights deals, that's a mistake."<\/p>\n
The Lakers make $200 million a year from their local rights. And the NBA just got a new deal (for national rights) that pays $7.6 billion a year.<\/p>\n
Their point is those numbers aren't going to go up anytime soon?<\/p>\n
Take a smarter break in your day – and see how far you get.<\/p>\n
They're saying, "The NFL will get more money. Cord-cutting's still happening. Broadcast TV is in distress. They're not seeing nearly as much money coming from streaming. So the media companies are saying, you know, "We could be at the apex of it."<\/p>\n
But when you talk to bankers and PE folks \u2014 this won't surprise you \u2014 they say, "No, it's still going to keep going up."<\/p>\n
This is the question people have been debating for years \u2014 how much longer can sports rights go up, when everything else in TV is contracting? But they have continued to go up.<\/p>\n
It is still mainly an advertising play. Sports is the last bastion of people watching live. It's been that case for a while, and it's the reason that broadcast networks and even cable networks are still profitable right now.<\/p>\n
So the bull case for sports rights continuing to move forward is \u2026 maybe the broadcast networks don't stay healthy, but they still exist. And they have to have sports.<\/p>\n