by H. James Wilson, Chetna Sehgal, Michael Zimmerman, Ali Arsanjani, Blaise Abderholden and Jimmy Priestas
Recent evidence on AI adoption has revealed a sobering paradox. Economists who linked large-scale adoption surveys to administrative payroll records found that although most employers had rolled out AI tools in areas where AI should have the highest probability of impact, the effect on earnings and hours two years on was statistically indistinguishable from zero. Despite capable technology and workers reporting productivity gains, the promised benefits failed to materialize on the bottom line.