By STACY LIBERATORE, US SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITOR
Published: 20:17 BST, 2 September 2026 | Updated: 20:47 BST, 2 September 2026
Federal scientists have raised the estimated odds of a major earthquake striking California’s Bay Area in the first update since 2014.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) now calculates a 74.1 percent chance of at least one magnitude 6.7 or stronger earthquake hitting the region by 2055, up from the previous estimate of 72 percent.
A quake of that strength could cause extensive damage to homes, roads and critical infrastructure across the densely populated Bay Area.
The increase reflects the time that has passed without a major rupture, allowing tectonic stress to continue accumulating beneath the region.
Ned Field, a seismologist with the USGS, told the San Francisco Chronicle: 'Things seem to be pretty locked and loaded. We’d be wise to be ready.'
The last major earthquake to hit the Bay Area was in 1994, when a 6.7 earthquake centered in Northridge struck.
Known as the Northridge Earthquake, it caused at least 57 fatalities and injured thousands.
The earthquake caused up to $20 billion in damage costs, plus $40 billion in economic loss, making it the costliest earthquake disaster in US history.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) now calculates a 74.1 percent chance of at least one magnitude 6.7 or stronger earthquake hitting the region by 2055, up from the previous estimate of 72 percent. Above is an AI-generated stock photo
Around 7.7 million people live in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, while a broader metropolitan definition reaches over nine million residents.
The new forecast underscores that the question facing millions of residents is not whether another destructive earthquake will strike, but when.
Scientists used the same statewide earthquake model for the 2014 and 2026 assessments, known as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.
The system calculates which faults could produce earthquakes of varying magnitudes and estimates the likelihood of those events occurring.
