It has been touted by the manufacturer as the ballistic missile of the future: lethal, long-range and pinpoint. Lockheed Martin's Precision Strike Missile has the U.S. military investing billions to update its arsenal.
But a close look at what is believed to be its first use in combat — on the first day of the Iran war — highlights the potential peril of deploying this weapon near population centers because it appears to spray pellets over a wide area, according to a review by the conflict monitor Airwars and interviews with weapons experts and former defense officials.
Three missiles that struck the southern city of Lamerd on Feb. 28 killed civilians as far as 50 meters (164 feet) from where they detonated, and caused damage more than three times farther away, Airwars found. The missiles detonated above a sports complex and two residential neighborhoods, Airwars found. The blasts killed at least 21 civilians, including seven children, according to Iranian officials.
Airwars is the first to map the damage radius of the strikes in Lamerd and estimate the lethal range of the weapon used.
The PrSM is designed to explode midair and propel tens of thousands of dense metal pellets at high speed in all directions. Photos, videos and satellite images of the Lamerd strikes' aftermath analyzed by Airwars and verified by The Associated Press show buildings, streets and vehicles were heavily pockmarked in a blast pattern that experts say is consistent with the PrSM's capabilities.
The U.S. military has confirmed firing PrSMs into Iran, but has denied attacking Lamerd.
It is unclear who or what was the intended target in Lamerd. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound is located nearby, but satellite images showed no damage there.
Six weapons experts, including two who are former military officials, told AP they believe PrSMs struck Lamerd — and they said it was unlikely that Israeli or Iranian weapons were used. All said militaries should avoid firing the PrSM at targets near civilian areas.
"You would be hard-pressed to find a reason to use the PrSM in a densely populated area," said Michael Meier, a former U.S. Army adviser on the laws of war.
Airwars, a London-based nonprofit, was founded more than a decade ago to track reports of civilian deaths from U.S. airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, and it has also monitored conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere. It relies on publicly available material, such as photos, videos, satellite images, social media and news reports, and uses geolocation software and other tools to help it analyze this evidence.
Airwars used these methods to investigate the strikes on Lamerd. It mapped the approximate locations of the missiles' detonations, where civilians were reported killed and where damage was visible and consistent with blast patterns. It then measured the distances between the positions to estimate the blast radius.
AP verified Airwars' blast radius estimate by measuring the distance between where civilians were killed, based on Iranian media reports, and where the missiles detonated midair, based on security camera and other videos. AP also examined satellite images, photos and videos of damage from the attack sites.
Lockheed Martin, which did not respond to a request for comment, has not said how wide the missile's impact is. It has released an animated video modeling a PrSM blast.
US touted use of PrSMs in Iran, but denied attacking Lamerd
In a post to X on March 1, the day after Lamerd was struck, U.S. Central Command included what munitions experts say was an image of the PrSM being fired during the Iran operation. Three days later, it touted that PrSMs — in a "historic first" — had been used in Iran, though not where.
