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Today we discuss political forecasting, death and taxes.
Goodness! We’re just 65 days from election day.
Time flies when you’re watching American democracy teeter.
Still think Republicans will lose the House?
Your friendly political columnist makes no predictions. It’s hard to know the future, seeing as how it hasn’t happened yet. But our best guide — historical trends — suggest Democrats are exceedingly likely to seize control on Nov. 3.
They need only flip three seats and, going back well over half a century, the average midterm gain for a party out of the White House is more than two dozen. Even with the advantage the GOP engineered through aggressive gerrymandering, the deadweight of a deeply unpopular president threatens to drag down a number of Republicans in competitive and some otherwise-not-so-competitive races.
Right now, the biggest question seems to be whether November brings a blue wave, a big blue wave or merely a ripple.
The contest in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District should be a shoo-in for Republicans. But a problematic candidate, inflation and Trump’s unpopularity give Democrats not far-fetched hopes for a massive upset.
What about the fight for control of the Senate?
That’s where things have gotten interesting.
At the start of this election cycle, it looked like winning control was all but out of Democratic reach.
There are 35 contests on the ballot in November. Of those, nearly two dozen are effectively over before they’ve even started, given the advantage one party holds over the other. Of the remainder, most are being held in states Trump won in 2024, which makes them, broadly speaking, much friendlier terrain for Republicans.
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and until fairly recently that inhospitable political map made it seem like an all-but insurmountable challenge.
