NEW YORK (AP) — As the U.S. and Israel relentlessly bombed Iran in the opening days of war, the most dramatic predictions of the conflict’s toll were unsparing: surging oil prices, worldwide recession and economic catastrophe.

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NEW YORK (AP) — As the U.S. and Israel relentlessly bombed Iran in the opening days of war, the most dramatic predictions of the conflict’s toll were unsparing: surging oil prices, worldwide recession and economic catastrophe.

NEW YORK (AP) — As the U.S. and Israel relentlessly bombed Iran in the opening days of war, the most dramatic predictions of the conflict’s toll were unsparing: surging oil prices, worldwide recession and economic catastrophe.

But six months into the conflict, the direst predictions haven’t come true even if no corner of the world’s economy has been untouched.

“So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, an investment strategist with Cerity Partners.

Here’s a look at how the global economy has weathered the war, and who have been the winners and losers:

Stock markets hate uncertainty, and the decision by the U.S. and Israel to attack Iran on Feb. 28 delivered heaps of it. Columns of smoke rose from Tehran, frantic Iranians clogged roadways trying to escape, and mounting deaths, including of children, made headlines. It was enough for any investor to feel squeamish.

Oil prices surged and Wall Street began a retreat that would begin five consecutive losing weeks. The Dow and Nasdaq entered corrections. The S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022.

But a major turnaround has unfolded since the market bottomed in late March. The Dow has gained nearly 19%, the S&P is up almost 22% and the Nasdaq has surged 27%. If those gains survive the waning months of 2026, all three indexes would post their fourth consecutive year of gains.

The International Monetary Fund, in a July report, said the economy was “being shaped by two major forces, pushing in opposite directions.” The war has strained growth, but enthusiasm over artificial intelligence has offset the drag.

Main Street may be paying more for fuel, food and travel. But Wall Street, so far, is shrugging it off.

The war’s most obvious economic consequence has been its impact on oil. With tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl, the price of Brent crude climbed from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to as high as nearly $120. Although prices have eased, they are still up about 20% from before the war.

Oil’s price affects everything from crayons to cosmetics, but it hits anyone on the move especially hard.

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