Country holds a knife-edge referendum that cuts across political divides on taking step closer to Brussels after Trump threats towards Greenland
For a long time, the prospect of becoming the third generation to run his family farm was an exciting one, says Davíð Clausen Pétursson.
Icelandic farmers were starting to get higher prices for their meat and milk, debt was no longer an occupational prerequisite and innovation was on the rise.
Now the 29-year-old is anxiously awaiting the result of a referendum on Saturday, when Icelanders will be asked whether or not they want to restart accession talks with the EU.
Davíð believes joining the bloc could have negative ramifications for farmers all over Iceland, slowing down progress made in the sector and reducing profits.
Across Europe small and medium-sized farms have struggled, with thousands closing each year because of brutal economic circumstances. In Iceland, however, the picture has been somewhat brighter for some farmers who have been able to make a profit and innovate.
Since the government announced that it was bringing forward the planned vote, amid Donald Trump’s efforts to take control of neighbouring Greenland, debate has taken in everything from food security to national identity, defence, housing, inflation, language, and natural resources.
The latest polls show the two sides – which cut across the political spectrum and generations – are neck and neck. According to Thursday’s Gallup poll, the no campaign is slightly in the lead with 51.6% of the vote and yes at 48.4%.
While the yes campaign has strong support, critics of the EU have in some ways been louder in part because a yes vote is less decisive: it is agreeing to begin negotiations, not saying yes to joining the EU.
“Of course I am quite invested in how it goes,” says Davíð at his remote farm in Hvammur, south-west Iceland, overlooked by a mountain that features in the Icelandic sagas. “I want at least to build my life around farming for the next 30-40 years and I would also like my kids to be able to do that as well. I am just not sure that it will be possible if we go that route.”
He says a “yes” win would lead to the years of negotiations before the nation votes again on any deal reached, and he fears the resulting uncertainty would put a halt to all the progress and the momentum in farming. Then, they would have to deal with the repercussions of the outcome, where he fears farmers’ interests, drowned out by the more valuable and noisier fishing lobby, would not be prioritised.
As Davíð explained to his nine-year-old son – the vote has been a big talking point at school – a litre of milk currently costs them about 100 ISK to produce, which they can sell for 145 ISK. He worries that joining the EU would mean he would have to significantly decrease the price of his milk and other products.
“It is not that I am against anything in the EU at all. I am half Danish, my mother is Danish and we of course buy a lot from Europe,” he says. “The regulations they have there are suitable for countries that live next to each other, but I am fearful that if it is a yes, the uncertainty will make it quite hard for us to see where we are going, so that will put everything at a bit of a halt.”
Iceland’s current farming system was built on the country being a lone independent state in the Atlantic with unique weather conditions, he says. “We can figure it out ourselves. We make trade agreements with everyone around us, we try to take off the tariffs and have free trade with the products we really need, we put tariffs on the products we are trying to produce here.”
He understands that high food costs are frustrating for consumers, but believes it is worth it. “There is a high cost to food security in Iceland. But there is an even bigger cost to losing that and being dependent.”
