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Labour risks losing up to 18 seats in London at the next general election, according to a new poll.
The Savanta survey for The Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, suggested the Conservatives could win eight seats from Labour, the Green Party four, Reform UK three, and independents three.
It put Labour on 32% in the capital for voting intention for Parliament, down 11 percentage points since the July 2024 general election.
Nigel Farage’s party and the Tories are tied on 18%, with Zack Polanski’s Greens on 16%, Liberal Democrats 10% and independents and others 6%.
As more Londoners have turned to Reform, the Greens and independents, the fragmentation of politics in the city makes calling individual constituencies increasingly difficult.
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at QMUL who compiled the seat analysis based on the Savanta poll, also stressed that the margin of victories in many of these seats are likely to be small so Labour could retain a significant number of them.
Andy Burnham may also boost Labour’s standing in the capital if he can successfully deliver his radical plans for Britain without harming London.
With these caveats, here is what could happen in London at the next general election, expected in 2029:
* Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18+ online between 10th and 17th August 2026. Data are weighted.
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