Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she wants to see Canada “double down” on diplomacy efforts with U.S. officials and avoid any further escalation of the trade war between the two countries.
On Wednesday, the premier rejected calls by the Opposition NDP, along with others such as former premier Jason Kenney, to use Alberta’s energy exports as a high-stakes bargaining chip.
“Although I understand the need to respond strongly to these tariffs, I cannot think of a more disastrous policy decision than cutting off or taxing Alberta’s oil to the United States,” she said.
“When you take an action, you have to expect an equal and opposite — and probably even more forceful — reaction.”
The U.S. has the power to cripple Canada energy-wise, she cautioned.
“It would not only extinguish the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of Albertans, it would economically hobble our friends and neighbors in other provinces to the east.”
Smith predicted if Canada were to enact a 50 per cent tariff on the four million barrels of oil exported south each day, the U.S.would hit back with a 50 to 100 per cent retaliatory tariff on all the oil and gas products, including ones shipped up to Eastern Canada like aviation and other refined fuels.
“This would result in the loss of about half a million jobs at a minimum, mostly in Alberta, but also hundreds of thousands of jobs in Ontario and Quebec.”
Cutting off exports entirely would hurt even worse, the premier cautioned.
“The United States would, of course, respond and cut off all gasoline and diesel from their refineries to Ontario and Quebec, right as we turn into fall and winter,” Smith said.
She also predicted American refineries that currently process Alberta’s heavy oil would switch to refining Venezuelan oil.
“As a result, we would lose the United States as a customer entirely and likely forever.”
So far, Alberta’s oil and gas exports to the U.S. have dodged Trump’s tariffs.
Provincial statistics peg the value of Alberta’s oil exports to the U.S. in 2025 at close to $111 billion — representing much of the province’s nearly $177 billion worth of all global exports.
Smith said she doesn’t think Canada could win the dispute through force and that it’ll come down to Canada being “too friendly, kind and helpful to resist.”
