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Reform UK’s London mayoral candidate Laila Cunningham could beat her Tory rival to get to the run-off against Labour in the next London mayoral race, according to a new poll.
The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, put Labour on 33% for the next contest for London mayor set to take place in 2028.
Reform is in second place on 20%, followed by the Conservatives on 18%, the Green Party 14% and Liberal Democrats 10%.
Under the voting system for Mayor of London, such a result would see Ms Cunningham getting to the run-off against Sir Sadiq Khan, or whoever is the Labour contender.
The second choice votes of Londoners for the candidates who did not make the final two are then allocated to the last two candidates under the supplementary vote system.
No mayoral candidates were explicitly named in the poll.
But Dr Eoghan Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said “On these numbers we would expect Labour to win quite comfortably on second preferences.”
Sir Sadiq, who was made a peer by Sir Keir Starmer, has signalled that he will decided next year whether to seek a fourth term in City Hall.
A recent poll found most Londoners want him to stand aside to allow another Labour candidate in the next mayoral contest.
If he did so, likely contenders to be Labour’s candidate include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, former Foreign Secretary David Lammy, MP for Tottenham, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan.
Dr Kelly added:“These results demonstrate that a lot could change before the next mayoral election as we await a final decision by Sadiq Khan on whether he will be the Labour candidate.
“Khan is significantly outperforming his own party's national leadership so it cannot be guaranteed that a different Labour candidate would have such a comfortable lead.”
