For the third month in a row, India secured the first rank by maintaining a solid lead over its emerging-market peers, shows Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker (EMT). India posted the second-best performance among the 12 economies in stock markets, GDP growth and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) manufacturing, which helped the country lift its average score even as its export and currency ranks were among the lowest.
India retained the first rank in June with a score of 77.3, comfortably ahead of Vietnam (73.2) and Malaysia (73.1). While the top two rankings have remained unchanged from May, India's lead narrowed compared to last month as currency and manufacturing activity weakened and inflation rose further.
Launched in September 2019, Mint's Emerging Markets Tracker compares 12 emerging economies using seven high-frequency indicators—GDP growth, manufacturing PMI, export growth, retail inflation, import cover, exchange-rate movements and stock market performance.
India’s overall activity remained strong, with GDP growth at 7.8% in the January-March quarter—the latest available figure for now. However, considering the impact of the West Asia war in the first quarter of the current financial year, GDP growth could lose momentum to around 7.0-7.3%. The data is due later this week.
Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.5 in July from 54.2, inflation rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, and the rupee depreciated 0.9% month-on-month as against a rise of 0.6% the previous month. Export growth, while stronger at 19.5% in July compared to 15.4% the previous month, was driven largely by price rises and paled compared to EM peers.
Stock market performance stood out during the month again as the country witnessed foreign portfolio inflows, strengthening its gains. FPI inflows were ₹20,200 crore in July, the first positive figure since February. Along with the Reserve Bank of India’s special foreign currency non-resident bank (FCNR-B) deposit scheme, the inflow helped strengthen India’s import cover, up to 10 months in July from 9.7 months in June.
While the currency weakened compared to June, the RBI’s decision to close the FCNR-B scheme a month earlier than its original deadline of 30 September shows the central bank’s comfort with the current rupee level of 95.6-95.7 per dollar.
Since the beginning of the West Asia war earlier this year, the world has adjusted to the continuing tensions in the region, with several indicators remaining range-bound. Brent crude oil prices have remained around $80-90 per barrel, rarely jumping to above $100 per barrel since May. The energy crisis is also playing out less prominently as countries, including India, were able to diversify their sources.
However, the second- and third-order effects of early price rises are still playing out. India’s inflation rose past the medium-term aim of 4% in June to 4.4% and rose further to 4.5% in July. The rapid surge in food prices amid further risks from deficient rainfall due to El Niño is keeping inflationary risks alive.
As a result, even as the RBI left the repo rate unchanged earlier this month at 5.25%, it showed a hawkish tilt in the August monetary policy meeting minutes. RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra noted in the policy minutes that there was a need to be “watchful” as higher food, fuel and other input prices translated into a broad-based increase in inflation.
“Any evidence of these risks materializing may need policy tightening,” he said.
While the disruptions to economic activity from West Asia war has weakened, the GDP growth in the April-June could decline sharply from 7.8% in January-March, with economists predicting 7.0-.7.3% growth rate.
However, Indian economy has shown resilience and is likely to perform better than anticipated earlier. “A growth of 6.7%, as projected for this financial year is robust, given the headwinds,” Malhotra said.
Payal Bhattacharya is a data journalist at Mint, and writes analytical stories for the Plain Facts section. She has over nine years of experience covering the Indian economy. Her work focuses on core macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, employment and the labour market, the informal sector, and government policies. She holds a Master’s degree in Economics, which underpins her ability to interpret official data releases, identify larger trends, and explain what they mean to the lay reader in practical terms. She closely tracks data like the national accounts, inflation indices, and labour surveys to produce clear, evidence-based reporting. Known for her clarity and precision, Payal focuses on presenting facts in a straightforward and accessible manner. Her stories place strong emphasis on data credibility, consistency, and context, aiming to help readers understand not just the numbers but also their real-world implications. She is particularly attentive to gaps and limitations in datasets, and highlights them in her stories when relevant. Committed to accuracy and transparency, Payal ensures her work remains a reliable resource for readers seeking to make sense of India’s economic realities.
Pragya is the Editor of Plain Facts, the specialized data journalism vertical at Mint, where she leads a team dedicated to uncovering the stories hidden within complex datasets. Since taking the helm of the section in 2025, she has leveraged over a decade of journalistic expertise to bridge the gap between abstract numbers and storytelling.<br><br>Pragya has distinguished herself through rigorous data work on India’s most critical economic and social indicators in the last eight years. Her portfolio includes deep dives into the complexities of India’s GDP calculations, nuanced critiques of government datasets and surveys, and in-depth analysis of the Time-Use Survey. The latter notably highlighted the profound ways in which marriage reshapes the lives and labour of Indian women.<br><br>Pragya started her journey as a copy editor and a reporter at the Press Trust of India (PTI) in 2016. Her interest in data analysis led her to The Financial Express and Cogencis, where she got opportunities to examine India's public statistics through a rigorous lens. This was further cemented when she joined Plain Facts in 2021. She maintains that while data and charts drive the narrative, they must remain anchored in rigorous journalism—providing the essential context and relevance needed to influence both public policy and everyday lives.
