Walk the halls of any major banking conference or listen in on a quarterly earnings call, and one topic keeps coming up: With the window for mergers wide open under the Trump administration, who will take a swing?
After years on the sidelines because of regulatory restrictions, large banks can once again contemplate buying other lenders, even a $100 billion-plus-asset regional bank.
While JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are barred from such a deal because they already have more than 10% of national deposits, there are two megabanks that could pursue a large acquisition: Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The nation's third- and fourth-largest banks have enough room under the national deposits cap to pursue a hefty regional bank, according to investment bankers, consultants and investors.
"Two years ago, it was impossible for a bank of that size to get approval to acquire almost anything," said Brian Graham, co-founder of advisory firm Klaros. "Now, it's possible they can get a deal done. I'd be shocked if they aren't exploring it."
After spending much of the last decade in a penalty box — Citigroup via consent orders and Wells Fargo capped by growth restrictions — both institutions have cleared key regulatory hurdles and are in growth mode.
A large acquisition — like the ones that rival JPMorgan pulled off during the crises of 2023 and 2008 — would give Wells Fargo or Citigroup thousands of branches and billions of dollars in deposits.
For Citigroup, which has only about 650 U.S. branches, it would offer a much-needed source of cheaper funding. For Wells Fargo, which already has a large branch network, such a transaction would add more scale and cost-cutting opportunities.
"There's a massive race for scale, and the shot clock is running," KBW analyst Chris McGratty said about the broad need for industry consolidation. "If you want to do something, this is the time to do it."
While there are over 4,200 banks in the U.S., only a handful would make sense as acquisition targets for Wells Fargo or Citigroup. A viable target needs to be large enough to move the needle, but small enough to keep the acquirer comfortably beneath the 10% national deposit cap. On top of that, a complementary branch network, good cultural fit and quality deposits are must-haves, making most deals hard to justify.
Run screens on those criteria, and five regional banks emerge as strong contenders for either bank.
Fifth Third delivers a commercial and retail engine across the Midwest and a fast-growing Southeastern footprint. Huntington provides a low-cost deposit base alongside a growing branch presence in high-growth markets in Texas and the Carolinas.
Citizens offers dense retail and commercial coverage across affluent Mid-Atlantic and New England cities. KeyCorp brings a middle-market commercial business and branches stretching from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest.
Finally, Regions delivers a retail deposit footprint in the fast-growing Southern corridor, including Texas and Florida.
Beyond that group, a bank that would work specifically for Wells Fargo is Zions, which provides relationships across high-growth Western states, fitting well with its footprint.
For Citigroup, a possible target that makes sense is First Horizon, with its presence across the fast-growing U.S. Sunbelt.