Published: 12:24 BST, 20 August 2026 | Updated: 17:44 BST, 22 August 2026
Super El Niño is evolving and could become one of the strongest events on record, scientists have warned.
New measurements show that El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SST) showing a steady upward trend.
Models reveal a 'clear and sustained increase', with the latest data showing the sea surface in this region is now 2.7°C above average.
And the majority of indicators are pointing towards a 'very strong event' that could have far–reaching impacts across the globe.
'The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central–eastern equatorial Pacific,' a blog written by Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research team reads.
'The traditional Niño 3.4 index shows a clear and sustained increase, with the most recent seasonal mean reaching +1.51 °C during May–July 2026 and the July monthly value increasing to +2.03 °C.
'The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on August 12, 2026, reached +2.7 °C.
'Together, these observations indicate that El Niño is strengthening further and evolving toward a very strong event.'
New measurements show that El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SST) showing a steady upward trend
Models reveal a 'clear and sustained increase', with the latest data showing the sea surface in the equatorial Pacific is now 2.7°C above average
The experts said further evidence of El Niño's strengthening comes from beneath the ocean's surface.
They explained a 'pronounced reservoir' of 'exceptional heat' has developed across the equatorial Pacific.
Temperatures at depths of up to 490ft (150m) are exceeding average values by more than 8°C in some areas.
'This substantially increased subsurface heat content provides a strong source of energy for continued surface warming and further El Niño intensification,' they said.
