Precious metals witnessed a considerable rally last week. Gold ($4,603/ounce) and silver ($69/ounce) were up 5.2 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively. Similarly, in the domestic market, gold futures (₹1,62,438/10 gm) rallied 5.1 per cent and silver futures (₹2,46,597/kg) gained 4.5 per cent. Below is an analysis.
Gold futures (Oct) broke out of the barrier at ₹1,55,000 by mid-last week and extended the rally to hit a high of ₹1,62,680 on Friday.
The chart shows that the upward momentum is strong and the probability of further rally is high. From the current level, the nearest resistance is at ₹1,70,000.
That said, we cannot reject the possibility of a minor dip, possibly to ₹1,60,000, before the upswing to ₹1,70,000.
In case gold futures slip below the support at ₹1,60,000, it can extend the decline to ₹1,55,000. But as it stands, gold futures can rally to ₹1,70,000 from either the current level of ₹1,62,438 or after a dip to ₹1,60,000.
Trade strategy: Buy gold futures (Oct) if it slips to ₹1,61,000. Place stop-loss at ₹1,59,000. When the contract rises to ₹1,67,000, tighten the stop-loss to ₹1,65,000. Book profits at ₹1,70,000.
Silver futures (Sept), which saw a dip early last week, found support at ₹2,30,000. This is an important support where both 21- and 50-day moving averages coincide.
The contract rebounded on the back of this, rallied and broke out of ₹2,40,000, a good indication that the outlook has turned bullish.
We expect silver futures to touch ₹2,60,000 in the near term. On the other hand, if the contract falls from the current level, it can find support at ₹2,40,000. A breach of this can lead to a deeper decline to ₹2,30,000.
Trade strategy: Buy silver futures at ₹2,44,000. Target and stop-loss can be ₹2,60,000 and ₹2,39,000, respectively.
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