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In the introduction to a report on the future of the energy system, shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho said: “Only a 10th of the UK’s emissions come from our electricity grid. The remaining 90% come from transport, heating and the rest of our economy.
“If we want those emissions to fall, then we need people to want to use electric cars and electric heating – then our priority should be to make electricity cheap.”
The report proposes a new path in order to reduce electricity costs. But this pathway sees a slower uptake of electric cars and heat pumps – a common form of electric heating – than the “business-as-usual” scenario under the current policy framework.
In a separate comment sent to the Press Association, Ms Coutinho recognised that “the adoption of electric technology is modelled as lower” in the alternative plan, but called the business-as-usual scenario “generous” in its assumptions.
The report was written by think tank Onward with advisory practice Transira Energy providing the system cost analysis which underpins parts of the argument.
The report explores two scenarios: One called “business-as-usual”, which it defines as “likely evolution of the power system under the current policy framework”. This explores what might happen if current policy is kept in place, but “taking account of real-world delivery constraints”.
The other scenario is the “alternative policy pathway” which Onward designed.
What do the scenarios assume about electric vehicles and heat pumps?
Both scenarios make a range of assumptions – such as the price of electricity – which could impact the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps. However, some are more directly linked to these electrification efforts.
In the business as usual scheme, a ban on new petrol and diesel cars comes into effect by 2030 and the rollout of heat pumps is supported by grants to households and requirements on manufacturers.
In the alternative scenario, these efforts are removed and uptake is dependent on “lower electricity prices and greater range of consumer choice”.
What impact do the scenarios have on EVs and heat pumps?Â
Ms Coutinho spoke of needing “people to want to use electric cars and electric heating” and that therefore the “priority should be to make electricity cheap”.
