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Northwestern University economist Chuck Manski studies decision-making amid uncertainty. That prepared him better than many other cancer patients to decide whether to stay on an immunotherapy treatment that was making him very ill.
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For six months in 2022, Manski received monthly infusions of nivolumab to fight advanced melanoma. The drug ruined his thyroid gland, he said, requiring him to go on a special medication for the rest of his life, and caused severe dryness in his eyes, lips, and mouth. The FDA’s protocol for the drug called for an entire year of treatment, but Manski said his oncologist couldn’t explain why. It’s FDA-approved, “so that’s what we use,” she said.
By that point, Manski showed no cancer signs or symptoms, and after reading a lot of medical journal articles, he concluded that the intense side effects probably meant the treatment had done about all it could do.
“She couldn’t tell me a year was the optimal dose. Nobody could,” he said in a June interview from Spain, where he received an award for his economics work. “So I made my own diagnosis. I took myself off.”
Manski’s decision was in line with what doctors in Canada, Israel, Sweden, and other countries were already doing: giving lower doses of nivolumab, sold under the brand name Opdivo, and of a similar drug, pembrolizumab (Keytruda), or giving them for shorter periods or over longer intervals than the FDA recommended. In India, oncologists found that as little as one-twelfth of the labeled dosage of nivolumab had a powerful impact on several cancers.
“There is incredible uncertainty in drug dosing,” Manski said.
His experience impelled him to join an informal yet determined community of researchers, doctors, and patients pushing for extra studies to help patients and doctors find the right dosage for an array of cancer drugs. They point to evidence suggesting that taking smaller doses of some cancer drugs, or remaining on them for shorter periods, could save billions of dollars and prevent some of the worst side effects.
In a recent KFF survey, 43% of U.S. adults said they had skipped their medication in the past year because of cost. A Vanderbilt University study of Medicare enrollees released in 2022 found that 30% of cancer drug prescriptions went unfilled at the pharmacy.
But dose-optimization studies rarely occur after the early stages of a drug’s development, or once it’s on the market. By then, few parties in the U.S. healthcare system — beyond patients — have a stake in learning that a lower dosage could work as well while causing less harm.
Pharmaceutical companies have shown little interest in dialing back recommended dosages. Once they set the price for a drug, the more sales, the more profit. One study that examined 29 expensive cancer drugs estimated that if minimum necessary dosages had been used in 2024, the U.S. healthcare system could have saved roughly $31 billion.
“Decisions aren’t always made with the best needs of the patients in mind. The bottom line is another reason,” said Matthew Goetz, a breast cancer researcher at the Mayo Clinic Comprehensive Cancer Center.
Merck last year sold nearly $32 billion worth of pembrolizumab, a drug that’s FDA-approved for more than 40 cancer conditions. It accounted for almost half of Merck’s drug sales. Bristol Myers Squibb, meanwhile, brought in $10 billion from nivolumab, which works similarly to pembrolizumab in tweaking the immune system. Three important but often toxic breast cancer drugs — Ibrance, Verzenio, and Kisqali — boosted revenue at Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Novartis by $4.1 billion, $5.7 billion, and $4.8 billion, respectively.
Pembrolizumab is usually prescribed at a fixed dosage; nivolumab is sometimes prescribed at a fixed dosage, sometimes based on the patient’s weight. If the patient is dosed less than what’s on the label, drugmakers generally get less money. And they aren’t the only ones who lose out.