Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose promise to hold a third referendum on Quebec’s secession from Canada “before the decade is out” has been a defining feature of his leadership, has evidently seen the same polls as the rest of us in recent months.
The PQ leader announced on social media that an eventual PQ government would not hold a referendum as long as Donald Trump remains president of the United States. St-Pierre Plamondon had hinted at such a possibility last February after the PQ’s by-election victory in Chicoutimi, but that commitment has now been made explicitly and officially.
This could be about Trump. Or you could point to three consecutive Quebec polls released in early August that measured support for sovereignty at near historic lows.
Asked how they would vote if a referendum on Quebec independence were held today, just 28 percent of respondents in a Leger poll for Québecor and a Synopsis Recherche poll for La Presse sided with the Yes camp. Another poll, conducted by Pallas Data and commissioned by 338Canada, measured Yes at 29 percent.
There was a time when support for sovereignty rarely produced a number beginning with a two. And yet, here we are.
And these numbers cannot be brushed aside solely by Quebec’s long-standing linguistic divide. Certainly, Quebec’s linguistic minorities continue to strongly oppose the sovereigntist movement. The 338Canada tracker has consistently measured in recent years that more than 80 percent of non-francophones would vote No in a hypothetical referendum. This much has not changed significantly over the years—or even decades.
What has changed is the balance among Quebec’s francophone majority. All three aforementioned polls showed sovereignty trailing by wide margins even among francophone voters.
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The updated 338Canada tracker has sovereignty losing among francophones by a wide margin—37 percent to 63 percent—once undecided voters are redistributed.
But there are other ways to take the pulse of Quebecers on sovereignty. Asking how they would vote in a referendum is one thing; asking whether they want a referendum at all is another. And heading into an election campaign with a firm promise to hold one ensures that the prospect of a referendum will be among the issues that party leaders—St-Pierre Plamondon particularly—will repeatedly have to address.
The latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data put that question directly to respondents. Here was the wording: “The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has stated that if the PQ wins the next election, his government would hold a referendum on sovereignty during its first term. To what extent are you favourable or unfavourable to this idea?”
Nearly half of respondents—48 percent—said they were very unfavourable. At the other end of the spectrum, just 18 percent said they were very favourable.
In a race to 50 percent, one side starts at forty-eight. The other starts at eighteen.
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Taken together, these numbers suggest that a critical mass of Quebecers remain opposed not only to sovereignty but to reopening the question at all. Perhaps even more concerning for St-Pierre Plamondon and PQ hopefuls is what the latest Leger poll tells us about what could actually sway voters in the upcoming provincial election.
