Deals, spinouts and partnerships are all reshaping the landscape for traditional TV. While the industry is no stranger to turmoil, the recently rapid pace of change is keeping media investors and onlookers on their toes.
This is the backdrop for CNBC's Future of TV survey: an update from our 2023 exercise that asks media insiders and executives to forecast the next three years in TV.
Pondering the future of TV isn't just a thought experiment. It's the underpinning of hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of mergers and acquisitions.
In February, Paramount Skydance agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, following a sale process that saw Netflix nearly acquire WBD's film studio and HBO Max. That deal is now held up due to politicians' antitrust fears.
In June, Fox said it would acquire streaming platform Roku for $22 billion. Comcast plans to separate out NBCUniversal in 2027, a swift follow-up to the spinout of Versant, its portfolio of cable TV networks, including CNBC. And Charter Communications recently received final regulatory approval for its $34.5 billion merger with Cox Communications, which would create the biggest cable company in the U.S.
Media companies are also thinking about partnerships to generate revenue as the cable TV ecosystem continues its decline. NBCUniversal has already announced a partnership between its Peacock and YouTube.
Disney has a new CEO and is focused on tying together its broad swath of media assets, including ESPN, ABC, FX, Disney+ and Hulu.
And Netflix — the company that upended the pay-TV model more than a decade ago with binge-watching, password-sharing, and no advertisements — has reversed course on many of its previous strategies in an effort to keep investors happy. And yet, its stock is down more than 35% in the past year.
All the while, YouTube continues to take viewing share as the rest of the media industry adjusts to how younger audiences want to consume content.
These big events are redefining strategy for every company in the ecosystem.
To get a read on where TV goes from here, CNBC asked the same five questions of 10 media executives. Some of the 2023 predictions unearthed by our previous canvassing proved quite accurate: Most executives correctly predicted linear pay TV would still be around, albeit with fewer customers; several correctly predicted bundling streaming services together would be challenging; and more than one even predicted Paramount+ and HBO Max, specifically, would be consolidated.
Chris Winfrey, Charter Communications president and CEO: I think it's going to decline dramatically, because the cost of free, over-the-air [retransmission] is now over $30 per customer for something that's essentially free. But what you're seeing already is all of that broadcast content and cable content is really all available inside of these apps, and it's available inside of big streaming bundles that I think will develop over time, and I think that will include Netflix. When you really think about it, Netflix is essentially a big cable programmer that could end up being bundled together with the other streaming apps to provide more choice, more value, and more utility for customers over time.
Jeff Zucker, RedBird IMI CEO and former NBCUniversal CEO and WarnerMedia News and Sports chairman: I don't think we'll have a floor. I do think it will continue to decline, and it'll probably do so every year until sports rights eventually disappear from cable. But, I think that's at least a decade off.
Charlie Collier, Roku Media president: Well, nothing truly goes to zero. Somewhere in America there's probably someone paying for AOL dial-up or renting a DVD from the last Blockbuster, which, by the way, is in Bend, Oregon. But the direction of travel is unmistakable.
Rashida Jones, Uncensored CEO and former MSNBC president: I think it's difficult to reverse the trend that we're seeing of consumers choosing to consume content on platforms other than linear television. I think that trend continues. How fast? Frankly, we haven't been right as an industry to date. It hasn't been quite as fast and as aggressive as maybe we were forecasting even four or five years ago.