Indian students planning to study in the United States could face greater uncertainty as stricter visa rules and changing immigration policies are expected to contribute to a sharp decline in international student enrolment at American colleges and universities.
A new report by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, prepared with research firm JB International, estimates that US institutions could see up to 1.1 lakh fewer international students in Fall 2026.
The development is particularly significant for India, which remains the largest source of international students in the US.
More than 3.63 lakh Indian students enrolled in US institutions during the 2024-25 academic year, according to the report.
The large Indian student population means changes to US visa policies, processing priorities and rules governing student stays could have a disproportionate impact on Indians seeking admission to American universities.
The NAFSA-JB International report estimates that international student enrolment in the US could fall from around 11.69 lakh in 2025-26 to 10.57 lakh in 2026-27.
For Indian students, the uncertainty comes at a time when the US remains one of the most popular destinations for higher education, particularly for postgraduate programmes in technology, engineering, management and research.
International students contributed an estimated $41.77 billion to the US local economy in 2025-26, according to the report. That contribution is projected to fall to $38.37 billion in 2026-27.
NAFSA said the projected decline demonstrates how US immigration policies can influence students' decisions about where to pursue education.
“The projections underscore what we’ve long warned: US policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future,” NAFSA Executive Director and CEO Fanta Aw said.
She warned that driving international students towards countries perceived as more welcoming could hurt American universities, hospitals, research institutions and local economies.
The report also pointed to changes in US visa processing priorities.
The US Department of State has prioritised visa appointments for FIFA World Cup ticket holders over students, according to the report. NAFSA noted that student and scholar visa applications have historically received priority during the peak period before the academic year to ensure students reach campuses on time.
For Indian students, delays in obtaining appointments or visas can create problems with university start dates, travel plans and accommodation arrangements.
Another major policy change could affect international students enrolled in longer programmes.