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US stocks slipped a bit further from their records, while oil prices kept swinging on uncertainty about when the war with Iran will allow crude to flow freely again.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3 per cent for a second modest drop since setting its all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 184 points, or 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.6 per cent.
The Australian sharemarket is set to decline, with futures at 6am pointing to a loss of 37 points, or 0.4 per cent, at the open. The ASX added 0.2 per cent on Tuesday. Commonwealth Banks results are the highlight of reporting season today. The Australian dollar is trading at US70.60¢.
The action was stronger in the oil market, where the price for a barrel of Brent crude briefly jumped above $US90 in the morning before falling back below $US87. It eventually settled at $US88.91, up 1.4 per cent from Monday.
Such erratic moves have become typical since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and kept much of the world’s oil pent up in the Middle East. Last month alone, Brent’s price veered between $US72 and $US102 per barrel.
Higher oil prices make inflation worse, and they’ve sent the average cost for a gallon of regular gasoline to $US4.01, according to AAA. That’s up from less than $US3.14 a year ago, though it’s down from last week’s nearly $US4.09.
That has Wall Street’s attention focused on Wednesday, when the US government will release the latest monthly reading on inflation. Economists expect it to show inflation remains high but that it decelerated to 3.4 per cent in July from 3.5 per cent in June.
That could help the Federal Reserve, whose members are notably split on whether they should be raising the country’s interest rates to keep a lid on inflation. While higher rates could help slow the increases of prices on store shelves, they would also slow the overall US economy by making it more expensive for US households and businesses to borrow money. They would also undercut prices for stocks and other investments.
Traders are betting on a coin flip’s chance that the Fed will raise its main interest rate at its next meeting in September, according to data from CME Group. If it does, that would be the first increase in more than three years. It also could anger President Donald Trump, who has been lobbying for lower interest rates.
Treasury yields have jumped since the war with Iran because of higher oil prices and worries about inflation, sending long-term mortgage rates to their highest levels in a year.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased back Tuesday, falling to 4.69 per cent from 4.72 per cent late Monday. But it remains well above its 3.97 per cent level from before the war with Iran.
On Wall Street, On Holding dropped 20.3 per cent even though the Swiss sneaker company reported a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It gave a forecast for upcoming revenue that fell short of analysts’ expectations, while saying it does not want to slash prices to drum up more sales.
Companies broadly have been blowing past analysts’ forecasts, which Wall Street loves because stock prices tend to follow the path of corporate profits over the long term. Earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are on track to be 50 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to FactSet, and that’s a big reason US stocks have been setting records recently despite worries about expensive oil, high inflation and other challenges.
Aramark, the food company and facilities manager, rallied 8.5 per cent after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Cardinal Health added 1.3 per cent after topping analysts’ profit expectations for the spring.