By STACY LIBERATORE, US SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITOR
Published: 12:52 BST, 9 August 2026 | Updated: 13:38 BST, 9 August 2026
Nearly half of all Americans could face violent earthquake shaking capable of damaging buildings, according to an alarming new study.
Researchers found that 159.2 million people live in areas exposed to ‘very strong’ shaking under the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) hazard model, up from 111.8 million in its previous version.
The assessment places 47.3 million homes and $25.6 trillion worth of buildings in potential danger.
At the lower, but still potentially destructive, level of ‘strong’ shaking, the number of Americans exposed soars to approximately 234 million.
While California remains one of the country’s most notorious earthquake hotspots, the study found that the threat extends far beyond the West Coast.
Danger has increased around the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the central US, while heavily traveled bridges make New York, Atlanta and St Louis unexpectedly vulnerable to severe disruption.
Researchers warned that a damaged crossing could cut neighborhoods off from hospitals, delay emergency crews and paralyze traffic long after the shaking stops.
The figures do not mean earthquakes have suddenly become more frequent, but show that improved scientific models have revealed far more people, homes and vital infrastructure may be exposed than previously understood.
Researchers found that 159.2 million people live in areas exposed to ‘very strong’ shaking under the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) hazard model. Above is an AI-generated stock image
The researchers measured the danger using a benchmark with a two percent chance of being exceeded within 50 years, roughly the lifespan of a building or major piece of infrastructure.
That does not mean a devastating earthquake is expected everywhere within the next five decades.
Instead, it allows scientists and engineers to compare the potential intensity of rare but destructive shaking across the country.
The latest model indicates that 234 million people could be exposed to at least 'strong' shaking, while approximately 73 million homes and $38 trillion in buildings stand within the affected areas.