Mohammed Adam: Don’t laugh. Just look at the poll numbers. There’s no question it is now a three-way race for mayor.
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Three months into a mayoral campaign we thought would be a horse race between Mark Sutcliffe and Jeff Leiper, Alex Lawson has crashed the party and turned the race upside down. The kid from Heron Gate could well seize the prize.
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Charging into second place in three months is astounding for a candidate who was virtually unknown before the writ dropped. If this trend continues, who is to say there won’t be, probably, the biggest upset in Ottawa mayoral election. Don’t laugh, just look at the poll numbers.
In April, Sutcliffe led with 46 per cent among all voters in a poll by Liaison Strategies – a good but not a comfortable lead. Leiper followed with 37 per cent, within striking distance of Sutcliffe. Lawson drew 13 per cent. Then in May, Sutcliffe dipped slightly to 42 per cent, Leiper had 36 per cent, Lawson inched up to 15 per cent, and Saravanamuttoo was at five per cent. https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/ottawa-mayors-race-tightens-as-sutcliffe-faces-trouble-with-undecided-voters/
Sutcliffe and Leiper’s drop continued into July with the mayor now at 36 per cent among decided and leaning voters, while at 25 per cent, Leiper was a point behind Lawson on 26 per cent.
Lawson in second place completely changes the dynamics of the race.
Lawson says he hasn’t done anything special or spectacular on the campaign trail. He has walked the road he is trying to fix, and he showed up and let his experience — the kid who lived on the Food Bank and Snowsuit Fund in Heron Gate who grew up to become the businessman — do the talking. “I am not sure I did anything clever. There is no genius behind it,” he explained. “I am the kid on the Food Bank list. The apprentice. The guy on site at five in the morning. The guy signing the cheques. I showed up and talked to people. The people worked it out.”
Lawson says he voted for Sutcliffe in 2022, but hasn’t seen much progress in the city. He acknowledges Sutcliffe has run a “calm” city, but that doesn’t mean the city is working. And he rejects a suggestion that Leiper’s slow start paved the way for his rise. The problem, he says, is that voters keep electing people who don’t live their lives. Not him. “When somebody says the rent went up again, or the bus didn’t come, or they don’t want to walk to their car at night (because they don’t feel safe), I am not nodding politely. I have walked that road myself.”
Of course, the campaign is in the early days. Municipal election campaigns usually kick into full gear after Labour Day, and Lawson knows that the campaign will be harder, especially with more critical eyes on him. There is much time for candidates to recover or tumble further. He says he will be ready. His belief is that if at the start of the campaign when many residents are not engaged, his message seems to be resonating from Barrhaven and Navan to Constance Bay and the ByWard Market. He will keep hammering the message, and against a mayor with 51 per cent disapproving the work he is doing, things can only get better. “This is where we want to be,” he said.